Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended November 15, 2024

18 Nov 2024 , 09:24 AM

FRONTLINE INDICES CRACK AROUND 2.5% THIS WEEK

For the week, the Nifty and the Sensex were down around 2.5%, despite the FPI selling being rather subdued at $288 million in the week. The indices have now corrected over 10% from their late September peaks, resulting in more than half a trillion dollars of wealth wiped out. It all began with the China fiscal stimulus, which brought up the long-China / short-India trade. India’s Q2 results were below par in terms of revenue and profit growth. That got magnified with the Buffett ratio at over 147% against a historical average of 91%.

But, the bigger concern was the Trump victory. Of course, there are chances that Trump will put trade barriers on Indian exports too, but the real concern is something larger. There is fear that China may pre-emptively start to weaken the Yuan to keep Chinese exports competitive. This is likely to weaken the rupee and put further pressure on FPI flows too. The net results was that while IT sector gained 81 bps in the week, all the other sectoral indices took deep cuts. FMCG was the bottom of the stack.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR THE INDEX

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	77,636.94	78,055.52	77,424.81	77,580.31
14-Nov-24	77,636.94	78,055.52	77,424.81	77,580.31
13-Nov-24	78,495.53	78,690.02	77,533.30	77,690.95
12-Nov-24	79,644.95	79,820.98	78,547.84	78,675.18
11-Nov-24	79,298.46	80,102.14	79,001.34	79,496.15
08-Nov-24	79,611.90	79,807.26	79,117.37	79,486.32
		Weekly Returns		-2.40%

Data Source: BSE

It was a week of deep losses for the BSE Sensex at 240 basis points or 1,906 points for the week. While IT managed to hold up in the positive, all other key sec tors like banking, oil, autos and FMCG were under pressure. During the week, Sensex touched a high of 80,102 and a low of 77,425; closing below the psychological 77,500 levels for week.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – VIX SLIDES, BUT SO DOES THE NIFTY

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	23,542.15	23,675.90	23,484.15	23,532.70
14-Nov-24	23,542.15	23,675.90	23,484.15	23,532.70
13-Nov-24	23,822.45	23,873.60	23,509.60	23,559.05
12-Nov-24	24,225.80	24,242.00	23,839.15	23,883.45
11-Nov-24	24,087.25	24,336.80	24,004.60	24,141.30
08-Nov-24	24,207.70	24,276.15	24,066.65	24,148.20
		Weekly Returns		-2.55%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of losses for the Nifty 50 at 255 basis points or 616 points for the week. IT was in the positive, but could do little on its own as other sectors took deep cuts. Ironically, the VIX tempered to 14.27 levels during the week, but it did not matter much in the final analysis. FPI selling was subdued at $288 Million; but other macros like higher inflation and higher trade deficit weighed on the index. During the week, the Nifty touched a high of 24,337 and a low of 23,484, falling through crucial levels, and also making lower highs and lower lows in the week.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – SELL-OFF WAS QUITE VISIBLE

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	53,875.50	54,471.40	53,870.75	54,043.10
14-Nov-24	53,875.50	54,471.40	53,870.75	54,043.10
13-Nov-24	55,065.45	55,172.45	53,635.85	53,800.85
12-Nov-24	56,067.70	56,358.75	55,131.10	55,257.50
11-Nov-24	56,221.80	56,349.30	55,751.25	55,853.75
08-Nov-24	57,201.70	57,214.85	56,207.20	56,352.00
		Weekly Returns		-4.10%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of deep losses for the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 at 410 basis points or 2.309 points for the week. Even in sectors like autos, and defence, the pressure was visible, although mid-cap IT did a lot better. There was pressure from a weak rupee and lower oil prices did not seem to matter. During the week, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 touched a high of 56,359 and a low of 53,871.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – SORRY, NO ALPHA HUNTING FOR NOW

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	17,500.70	17,749.15	17,497.10	17,601.05
14-Nov-24	17,500.70	17,749.15	17,497.10	17,601.05
13-Nov-24	17,903.35	17,941.15	17,431.50	17,458.90
12-Nov-24	18,261.95	18,391.25	17,950.05	17,991.60
11-Nov-24	18,382.60	18,416.45	18,204.45	18,225.15
08-Nov-24	18,783.25	18,797.35	18,401.15	18,445.60
		Weekly Returns		-4.58%

Data Source: NSE

After falling by 186 bps in the previous week, this week saw the small cap index falling by a steep 458 basis points. There was little by way of buying support in the market. This week, the Nifty Small Cap index touched a high of 18,416 levels and a low of 17,432. The small cap index is also vulnerable to rupee weakness and oil prices; but for now, the markets are just focusing on the relatively higher risk of these small cap stocks.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – FPIS CONTINUE TO SELL BANKS

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	50,053.45	50,561.80	49,939.35	50,179.55
14-Nov-24	50,053.45	50,561.80	49,939.35	50,179.55
13-Nov-24	51,030.95	51,353.50	49,904.40	50,088.35
12-Nov-24	52,053.75	52,169.05	51,006.85	51,157.80
11-Nov-24	51,562.70	52,177.70	51,294.20	51,876.75
08-Nov-24	51,869.15	52,007.15	51,494.00	51,561.20
		Weekly Returns		-2.68%

Data Source: NSE

Bank Nifty had a cautious fall last week, but this week it fell by a full 268 basis points or 1,382 points. Banks had rallied ahead of the Fed policy statement in the previous week; but there are concerns over sustaining NIMs. With high cost deposits rising, NIMs may see further pressure in coming quarters. During the week, Bank Nifty touched a high of 52,178 and a low of 49,904; breaking below the 50,000 mark after a long time.

NIFTY IT INDEX – RECORDS SECOND WEEK OF IMPRESSIVE GAINS

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	42,318.75	42,633.00	42,162.80	42,390.85
14-Nov-24	42,318.75	42,633.00	42,162.80	42,390.85
13-Nov-24	42,484.45	42,659.70	42,201.40	42,369.50
12-Nov-24	42,846.00	42,884.60	42,462.05	42,609.55
11-Nov-24	41,991.35	42,798.15	41,793.65	42,590.30
08-Nov-24	41,938.80	42,306.70	41,840.70	42,050.15
		Weekly Returns		0.81%

Data Source: NSE

IT is, perhaps, that believes all is well. After gaining a whopping 4% in the previous week, the IT index added another 0.81% this week, or about 341 points. However, unlike last week, the Nifty IT index could not materially change the direction of the Nifty overall. IT sector gained from dollar strength, Trump 2.0, and hopes that tech spending will revive. During the week, Nifty IT index touched a high of 42,885 and low of 41,794. IT was the only big index to make higher highs and higher lows for the week.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – RELIANCE STILL UNDER PRESSURE

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	10,827.50	10,876.15	10,749.20	10,810.30
14-Nov-24	10,827.50	10,876.15	10,749.20	10,810.30
13-Nov-24	11,001.45	11,034.45	10,807.50	10,825.00
12-Nov-24	11,177.95	11,257.95	11,003.45	11,033.85
11-Nov-24	11,174.75	11,234.20	11,088.20	11,135.10
08-Nov-24	11,425.85	11,437.40	11,177.50	11,228.10
		Weekly Returns		-3.72%

Data Source: NSE

With weak GRMs and Reliance continuing to be weak, the oil sector correction was sharp and expected. This week, the oil & gas index closed with losses of -372 basis points or 418 points on the index. While RIL has not shown signs of bottoming out, even the GRMs continue to be under pressure. For the week to November 15, 2024, the Oil & Gas index touched a high of 11,258 and a low of 10,749.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – EVEN AUTOS TAKE IT ON THE CHIN

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	22,831.55	23,036.15	22,659.05	22,914.50
14-Nov-24	22,831.55	23,036.15	22,659.05	22,914.50
13-Nov-24	23,207.70	23,220.00	22,691.50	22,765.20
12-Nov-24	23,744.70	23,865.60	23,183.75	23,269.10
11-Nov-24	23,740.20	24,077.10	23,618.30	23,729.45
08-Nov-24	23,855.55	23,900.60	23,536.05	23,805.20
		Weekly Returns		-3.74%

Data Source: NSE

With genuine concerns over offtake, festive demand, and cost of ownership; the auto sector had another bad week. This week the auto index closed 3.74% lower or 891 points down for the week. Auto Index made a weekly high of 23,866 and a low of 22,659; with weak consumer demand clearly weighing on the fortunes of the auto sector.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – TAKES THE BIGGEST HIT OF THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to November 15, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
15-Nov-24	56,634.75	56,774.05	55,689.20	55,782.70
14-Nov-24	56,634.75	56,774.05	55,689.20	55,782.70
13-Nov-24	56,730.95	56,855.70	56,489.10	56,647.85
12-Nov-24	57,925.15	57,960.05	56,796.45	56,902.55
11-Nov-24	58,327.15	58,533.25	57,575.15	57,843.95
08-Nov-24	58,241.40	58,431.65	57,854.85	58,359.40
		Weekly Returns		-4.42%

Data Source: NSE

FMCG saw an intriguing rise and, now, an equally intriguing fall. Urban demand is back to haunt FMCG index; which was down 4.42% or 2,577 points on the index. The urban demand narrative is working against FMCG. During the week, the FMCG Index touched a high of 58,533 and a low of 55,689. Q2FY25 saw FMCG stocks stressed, across the board.