Indian stock market is likely to start Thursday’s trading session on a positive note. The Gift Nifty which is currently trading at 24,116 as of 08:12 AM today thus hints at a recovery after the domestic benchmark indices extended their losing streak to a third consecutive session yesterday.
Gift Nifty’s latest trading signals a positive start for the Nifty on September 3. The positive indication comes after a weak session on Wednesday, when persistent concerns over crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising global bond yields kept investors on the back foot.
The Sensex closed at 76,570.35 on Wednesday, falling 373.93 points, or 0.49%. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 declined 141.35 points, or 0.59%, to settle at 23,914.45.
The positive move in Gift Nifty could provide some relief to domestic equities at the opening bell. However, traders are likely to remain cautious as several external factors continue to influence market sentiment.
Crude oil prices remain an important variable for Indian stocks, particularly because a sustained increase in oil prices can increase concerns around inflation and the country’s import bill. At the same time, geopolitical developments in West Asia and movements in global bond yields could continue to trigger volatility during the session.
For the Nifty, the opening level will be important after the index slipped below the 24,000 mark in the previous session.
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty continues to remain under pressure. Selling has been visible at higher levels, and the index has yet to show a convincing sign of a trend reversal.
The 24,000-24,200 range is likely to remain the immediate resistance zone for the index. A sustained move above 24,200 could provide some stability to the near-term setup.
A stronger recovery, however, would require the Nifty to decisively cross the 24,400 level. Such a breakout could indicate that buying momentum is returning and improve the short-term market structure.
Until that happens, traders may prefer to remain watchful rather than assume that a single positive opening marks the end of the recent correction.
On the downside, 23,800 remains the key support level for the Nifty.
The index holding above this zone could help limit further selling and provide a base for a possible recovery. However, a decisive break below 23,800 may change the near-term picture and increase the possibility of the Nifty moving towards 23,600.
This makes the 23,800 mark particularly important in Thursday’s session. A move below it could revive selling pressure, while sustained buying above the 24,000-24,200 region could improve sentiment.
The rise in Gift Nifty offers a positive cue ahead of the market opening. At 24,116, Gift Nifty was up 151 points or 0.63%, suggesting that the Nifty could begin Thursday’s session with gains.
However, the opening indication should not be viewed in isolation. With crude oil prices, global bond yields and geopolitical developments continuing to influence risk appetite, market moves could change quickly during the day.
Investors will therefore be watching whether the Nifty can sustain gains after the opening and, more importantly, whether it manages to reclaim and hold above the 24,000 level.
For Thursday, the key levels for traders remain:
Overall, the near-term Nifty outlook remains cautious to weak, despite the positive indication from Gift Nifty. Holding the 23,800 support will be critical to prevent further downside, while a move above 24,200 could offer the first signs of stabilization. A decisive breakout above 24,400, meanwhile, would be required to establish stronger bullish momentum.
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