Pharma: Rx and market share trends for key US products

20 Oct 2023 , 11:12 AM

In this report, analysts of IIFL Capital Services highlight prescription volumes and market share trends for the key US products for Indian generic companies. Key takeaways include: 

1) Lupin launched gSpiriva during Q2FY24 and within two months of launch, it has captured 19% market share (MS) in Spiriva. However, Lupin’s execution in Suprep was even better than Spiriva, as it had captured 33% MS in Suprep within two months of launch. Analysts of IIFL Capital Services have assumed USD100-130mn revenue for Lupin from Spiriva over FY24- 26. 

2) During Q2FY24, Zydus launched Chantix and has captured 8% MS. Analysts of IIFL Capital Services estimate USD20-42mn revenue from Chantix for Zydus over FY24-26. Zydus also launched Indomethacin suppository where Zydus has 180-day exclusivity and has captured 35% MS within two months of launch. Analysts of IIFL Capital Services estimate USD13-23mn revenue from Indomethacin suppository for Zydus over FY24-26. 

3) Competitive dynamics in the biosimilar Humira market remains intense, with aggressive price-led competition from the innovator (AbbVie). Consequently, despite Amgen, Sandoz, BI and Samsung having preferred formulary status with key PBMs in the US, all biosimilar players together have captured <1% MS with Biocon’s MS also being insignificant at 0.01%. However, Biocon’s MS in Pegfilgrastim has improved QoQ from 16% to 20% in Q2FY24. 

4) Sun’s Specialty products – Ilumya/Winlevi/Absorica volumes were weak in Q2, while Cequa registered strong sequential volume growth of 13% in Q2. In generic Pentasa, Sun’s MS has declined drastically QoQ from 58% to 45% in Q2, likely due to the Mohali non-compliance impact coming with a one-quarter lag. 

5) Although Dr. Reddy’s MS in Vascepa has been stable at 15-16% over the past six quarters, MS in Suboxone has increased over the past two quarters from 20% to 26%.