Pharma: Rx and market share trends for key US products

14 Dec 2023 , 11:55 AM

In this report, analysts of IIFL Capital Services highlight prescription volumes and market share trends for the key US products, for Indian generic companies. Sun Pharma, Aurobindo and Zydus are their preferred picks among the diversified Pharma companies and Mankind, JB Pharma and Alkem among domestic Pharma. Key takeaways: 

1) Lupin’s execution in generic Spiriva continues to remain good, as its market share (MS) in the Spiriva HandiHaler market has further increased from 20% in end Oct’23 to 21.5% in early Dec’23. Analysts of IIFL Capital Services have assumed USD80-145mn revenue from Spiriva for Lupin over FY24- 26. Although Lupin has captured 34% MS in Prezista as of Nov’23 during its 180-day exclusivity period, analysts of IIFL Capital Services expect sharp price erosion going forward as incremental competition enters the Prezista market. 

2) Despite incremental competition in Chantix, Zydus has ramped up its MS in Chantix to 10% in Nov’23. Analysts of IIFL Capital Services estimate USD20-40mn revenue from Chantix for Zydus over FY24-26. Zydus has also captured 63% MS within four months of Indomethacin suppository launch in the US (it has 180-day exclusivity on the product). Analysts of IIFL Capital Services estimate USD13- 23mn revenue from Indomethacin for Zydus over FY24-26. 

3) Mankind’s Export business growth momentum in H1FY24 has been led by the ophthalmic product Ofloxacin, where Mankind’s MS increased from 4% to 25% over the past year, as Akorn Pharma (bankrupt) exited the market. Mankind’s MS in Nitrofurantoin/Perforomist has also increased QoQ from 20/10% in Q2 to 38/15% in Q3FY24 QTD. 

4) Sun’s Specialty products – Ilumya/Cequa/Winlevi volumes were strong and increased 11/8/3% QoQ resp., in Q3FY24 QTD. However with the Mohali plant US supplies expected to resume only gradually, Sun’s MS in Pentasa further declined to 28% in Q3FY24 vs 45% in Q2. 

5) The competitive dynamics in the biosimilar Humira market continues to remain intense. Although there is some progress in biosimilar players gaining incremental MS, analysts of IIFL Capital Services note that all biosimilar players together have still captured.