India IIP for the month of Oct 2025: 0.4% YoY

4 Dec 2025 , 01:09 PM

India’s IIP growth stalled at a meagre 0.4% (YoY) in October 2025 after a string of 4-5% gains. This marks the first reading of sub-1% IIP growth since mid-2024. The reversal was driven, primarily, by a sharp fall in the electricity sector (6.9%), a sharp deceleration in manufacturing (1.8%) and a decline in mining (1.8%). The use-based breakdown indicates that consumer durables witnessed a significant deceleration (from +10.2 % to -0.5 %), capital goods fell to 2.4 % from 4.7 %, and all other categories (consumer non-durables, intermediate, primary, and infrastructure‑construction goods) registered sharp deceleration. These numbers were much below estimates of ~3%. That said, higher number of holidays (Dussehra and Diwali) is also likely to be the reason for lower industrial output.

Festival Season Likely Impacted Industrial Output:

India’s IIP slipped sharply to just 0.4 % in October 2025. This is much below September’s 4% and analyst estimates (Reuters poll) of ~3%. A 5-day festive season and inventory buildup ahead of the festive season in September are likely reasons for the significant negative surprise. Also, the consumption boost from GST cuts will likely offset the worrying October number.

Figure: A 3-year History of YoY changes In IIP

Figure: History of YoY Changes In IIP

Month	IIP YoY (%)
Dec-2024	3.7
Jan-2025	5.2
Feb-2025	2.7
Mar-2025	3.9
Apr-2025	2.6
May-2025	1.9
Jun-2025	1.5
Jul-2025	4.3
Aug-2025	4.1
Sep-2025	4.0
Oct-2025	0.4

Source: MOSPI

 

All Key Sectors Show Deceleration. Electricity Witnesses A Sharp Drop

In Oct‑2025, the electricity sector was a key drag to the IIP, plunging to ‑6.9% from the 3.1% reading in Sep‑2025. This reverses the positive trend seen over the past few months. Manufacturing also weakened, slipping to 1.8%, and materially lower than September’s 4.8%. Mining continued to deteriorate from the highs of August 2025. Growth in mining output fell from -0.4% YoY in September 2025 to -1.8% YoY in October 2025. Together, these three sectors dragged overall IIP growth lower, contrasting sharply with the relative strength seen in Jul‑Aug‑2025 when electricity and mining posted strong gains.

Figure: History of IIP YoY Growth By Sectoral Classification

Figure: History of IIP YoY Growth By Sectoral Classification

Month	IIP.Electricity	IIP.Manufacturing	IIP.Mining
Dec-2024	6.2	3.7	2.7
Jan-2025	2.4	5.8	4.4
Feb-2025	3.6	2.8	1.6
Mar-2025	7.5	4.0	1.2
Apr-2025	1.7	3.1	-0.2
May-2025	-4.7	3.2	-0.1
Jun-2025	-1.2	3.7	-8.7
Jul-2025	3.7	6.0	-7.2
Aug-2025	4.1	3.8	6.6
Sep-2025	3.1	4.8	-0.4
Oct-2025	-6.9	1.8	-1.8

Source: MOSPI

Analysis of Use Based Classification. All Segments Decelerate. FMCG Fares The Worst

In October 2025, the use-based IIP decelerated sharply across the board, with every category posting a deceleration versus September. Capital goods fell to 2.4% from 4.7%, while consumer durables plunged from a robust +10.2% in September to ‑0.5%. Consumer non-durables deepened their contraction to ‑4.4% (from ‑2.9%), and infrastructure‑construction goods slipped to 7.1% from 10.5%. Intermediate goods dropped sharply to 0.9% (versus 5.3%), and primary goods turned negative at ‑0.6% (versus +1.4%). The breadth of the decline suggests a broad-based slowdown in industrial output for the month.

Figure: History of IIP YoY Growth By Use-Based Classification

Figure: History of IIP YoY Growth By Use-Based Classification

Month	IIP.Capital_Goods	IIP.Consumer_Durables	IIP.Consumer_Non-durables	IIP.Infrastructure_Construction_Goods	IIP.Intermediate_Goods	IIP.Primary_Goods
Dec-2024	10.5	8.1	-7.1	8.4	6.4	3.8
Jan-2025	10.2	7.1	0.1	7.3	5.3	5.5
Feb-2025	8.2	3.7	-2.1	6.8	1.0	2.8
Mar-2025	3.6	6.9	-4.0	9.9	3.8	3.9
Apr-2025	14.0	6.2	-2.7	4.7	4.9	-0.2
May-2025	13.3	-0.9	-1.0	6.7	4.7	-1.4
Jun-2025	3.0	2.8	-0.9	6.7	5.5	-2.5
Jul-2025	6.8	7.3	0.5	13.7	6.1	-0.7
Aug-2025	4.5	3.5	-6.4	10.4	5.2	5.4
Sep-2025	4.7	10.2	-2.9	10.5	5.3	1.4
Oct-2025	2.4	-0.5	-4.4	7.1	0.9	-0.6

Source: MOSPI