India’s CPI Hits Record Low

13 Nov 2025 , 03:39 PM

India’s CPI inflation declined sharply to 0.25% in October 2025. This is a significant drop from September’s 1.54%; and it marks the lowest reading since the current inflation series started. The dramatic deceleration was primarily driven by a substantial (-3.72%) deflation in the Food component, which represents a major weight in the CPI basket. CFPI (Consumer Food Price Index) showed a sharper drop at -5.02%. The impact of GST cuts has also been a key factor in lower inflation in October. On the other hand, Housing inflation remained elevated at 2.96%, while Energy (Household) (1.98%), Apparel (1.7%), and Tobacco (1.47%) showed moderate inflationary pressures.

Figure: CPI – A 3-year history

Date	YoY (%)
Nov-2024	5.48
Dec-2024	5.22
Jan-2025	4.26
Feb-2025	3.61
Mar-2025	3.34
Apr-2025	3.16
May-2025	2.82
Jun-2025	2.1
Jul-2025	1.61
Aug-2025	2.07
Sep-2025	1.54
Oct-2025	0.25

Source: MOSPI

Figure: CPI – Components

Date	Category	YoY (%)
Oct-2025	CPI.Apparel	1.7
Oct-2025	CPI.Energy_Household	1.98
Oct-2025	CPI.Food	-3.72
Oct-2025	CPI.Housing	2.96
Oct-2025	CPI.Tobacco	1.47

Source: MOSPI

 

CPI.Food – Sharp Drop on Moderation in Oils and Disinflation in Vegetables

Food inflation witnessed another sharp drop in October 2025. It fell to -3.72%, down from -1.37% in September. As measured by the CFPI, the drop was sharper at -5%. An examination of constituents shows that high inflation categories like edible oils and fruits witnessed moderation. Inflation in the edible oils category dropped from 18% in September to 11% in October. Similarly, inflation in fruits fell from ~10% in September to ~6.7% in October. In addition, the vegetables category continued to see a sharp drop in prices. For October, it had a 27% YoY drop in prices.

Figure: CPI.Food – A 3-year history

Date	YoY (%)
Nov-2024	8.2
Dec-2024	7.69
Jan-2025	5.68
Feb-2025	3.84
Mar-2025	2.88
Apr-2025	2.14
May-2025	1.5
Jun-2025	-0.15
Jul-2025	-0.84
Aug-2025	0.05
Sep-2025	-1.37
Oct-2025	-3.72

Source: MOSPI

Figure: CPI.Food – Components

Date	Category	YoY (%)
Oct-2025	CPI.Dairy	2.35
Oct-2025	CPI.Edible_Oils	11.17
Oct-2025	CPI.Eggs	1.33
Oct-2025	CPI.Fruits	6.69
Oct-2025	CPI.Vegetables	-27.57
Oct-2025	CPI.Grains	-2.74
Oct-2025	CPI.Meat	1.12
Oct-2025	CPI.Seafood	3.0

Source: MOSPI