Market outlook for next week (01-Dec to 05-Dec)

5 Dec 2025 , 04:33 PM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO NOVEMBER 28, 2025

The week to November 28, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex rise by 0.52% and 0.56% respectively. During the week, FPIs buying was totally flat. For the week, the rupee showed some strength, as RBI continued to defend the rupee at ₹90/$.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (28-Nov)	Index (21-Nov)
Nifty Non-Banks	1.69%	32,186.00	31,652.00
Nifty PSU Banks	1.62%	8,514.40	8,378.70
Nifty Banks	1.50%	59,752.70	58,867.70
Nifty Metals	1.48%	10,293.05	10,142.55
Nifty IT	1.41%	37,405.50	36,885.35
Nifty Healthcare	1.40%	15,031.25	14,824.25
Nifty Private Banks	1.38%	28,789.40	28,396.60
Nifty MNC	1.09%	30,392.45	30,063.65
Nifty Capital Markets	0.97%	4,782.10	4,736.10
Nifty Automobiles	0.86%	27,774.60	27,537.85
Nifty Mobility	0.75%	23,241.95	23,068.45
Nifty India Digital	0.51%	9,419.70	9,372.15
Nifty FMCG	0.16%	55,595.80	55,504.70
Nifty Infrastructure	-0.08%	9,653.90	9,661.45
Nifty Realty	-0.27%	903.15	905.60
Nifty Chemicals	-0.39%	28,800.75	28,913.35
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.56%	37,881.60	38,093.85
Nifty Oil & Gas	-0.90%	12,034.40	12,143.95
Nifty CPSE	-1.27%	6,361.85	6,443.70
Nifty India Defence	-1.31%	8,009.85	8,116.40

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 13 sectors gave positive returns, while 7 gave negative returns. NBFCs, Banks, Metals, IT, and Healthcare recorded best gains. On the downside; Defence, CPSE, and Oil & Gas were under stress. Out of 13 gaining sectors; 8 sectors gained over 1% during the week.

Here is a quick look at the story behind the big gainers and losers this week. On the upside, the rally was driven by expectations of a rate cut in December and a China demand recovery. Banks showed a sharp rally. On the downside, defence and CPSEs are seeing sharp unwinding. Defence continues to feel the strain of the Tejas crash at Dubai.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 0.50%. The top 5 sectors delivered 1.54% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 1.34%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.34%, showing limited pressure on the downside. Going ahead, key triggers in the coming week will be reaction to GDP and fiscal deficit; as well as IIP and CAD data.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY

On the positive side, the GDP growth for Q2FY26 at 8.2% came in better than expected. Also, the decision by major corporate houses to sink in billions of dollars into AI data centres is likely to be a long-term positive. The recent report by JP Morgan also hints at doubling of the CDMO market with profits growing at a CAGR of 20%; 300 bps more than sales CAGR.

On the downside, there are challenges on the GDP data in that the growth has come more from low inflation than from improved nominal growth. In fact, nominal GDP growth is just 8.7%, which is not great news for jobs and tax revenues. Fiscal deficit spiked 44% in absolute terms in October 2025 due to front-loading of advance tax revenue recognition.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO DECEMBER 05, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The big trigger in the coming week will be the RBI monetary policy to be announced on 04-December. The RBI governor had hinted at the possibility of a rate cut of 25 bps in the policy, and it remains to be seen how the MPC arrives at a decision.
• The other big data point this week will be the IIP data, which is to be announced on 01-Dec. At 4.0% in September, the October data is likely to be pressured by mining and electricity. However, manufacturing IIP is likely to improve in October to above 5%.
• The coming week is also likely to see the current account deficit for Q2FY26 to be announced by the RBI. With a sharp widening of the merchandise trade deficit in recent months, the second quarter of FY26 is likely to see more CAD pressure than Q1.
• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is also expected to announce the PCE inflation for September this week. At 2.8%, it is likely to be 10 bps higher and that may almost rule out the possibility of a rate cut in December 2025 FOMC meet.
• Key global data points. OPEC Meeting, Fed Speak, Atlanta Fed GDP, Redbook, JOLTS, API Crude Stocks, IIP, PMI, Jobless Claims (US). PMI, CPI, ECB Speak (EU); Capital Spending, Household Spending (Japan); HPI, PMI (UK); Caixin PMI (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to December 05, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX fell sharply from 13.63 levels to 11.62 levels, as global macros stabilized in the week. The fear factor appears to be waning after a gap of a few weeks.

• Nifty closed the week at 26,203 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 26,157 and major support at 26,048. Immediate resistance is at 26,265 and later at 26,373. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 26,030 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 85,707 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 85,533 and major support at 85,141. Immediate resistance is at 85,925 and later at 86,317. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 85,129 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the impact of GDP and fiscal deficit data on the markets. In addition, the coming week will see the IIP data and the current account data being announced. The big news, of course, will be the December RBI monetary Policy.