Market outlook for the week (03-Nov to 07-Nov, 2025)

3 Nov 2025 , 07:57 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO OCTOBER 31, 2025

The week to October 31, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex fall -0.28% and -0.32% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities of $826 Million. For the week, FPIs showed confidence but concerns over the sustained US shutdown remain.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (31-Oct)	Index (24-Oct)
Nifty PSU Banks	4.69%	8,184.35	7,817.40
Nifty Oil & Gas	3.15%	11,990.25	11,624.05
Nifty Metals	2.56%	10,612.15	10,347.45
Nifty Infrastructure	1.80%	9,566.15	9,396.95
Nifty Realty	0.71%	947.55	940.90
Nifty Banks	0.13%	57,776.35	57,699.60
Nifty MNC	0.11%	30,204.95	30,172.25
Nifty CPSE	0.00%	6,615.65	6,615.45
Nifty Chemicals	-0.01%	29,182.31	29,186.56
Nifty India Digital	-0.15%	9,243.60	9,257.75
Nifty Mobility	-0.20%	22,757.60	22,802.10
Nifty FMCG	-0.25%	56,208.50	56,348.10
Nifty Non-Banks	-0.30%	31,192.65	31,288.05
Nifty Consumer Durables	-0.53%	38,615.10	38,822.80
Nifty India Defence	-0.58%	8,135.20	8,182.25
Nifty IT	-0.76%	35,712.35	35,986.35
Nifty Private Banks	-1.00%	28,050.65	28,335.25
Nifty Automobiles	-1.10%	26,809.85	27,108.70
Nifty Healthcare	-1.14%	14,693.30	14,862.85
Nifty Capital Markets	-1.85%	4,530.20	4,615.65

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 8 sectors gave positive returns, while 12 gave negative returns. PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, Metals, and Infrastructure recorded best gains. On the downside; Capital Markets, Healthcare, Automobiles, and Private Banks were under pressure. Out of 8 gaining sectors; 4 sectors gained more than 1%; of which 2 sectors gained over 3% during the week.

Here is a quick look at the story behind the big gainers and losers this week. PSU banks gained sharply on talks of imminent consolidation while oil & gas gained from the Reliance rally. Metals continue to benefit from the possible US-China deal. On the downside, capital markets took the biggest hit due to the proposed MF rules on brokerage.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 0.26%. The top 5 sectors delivered 2.58% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 1.30%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.77%, showing marginal pressure in markets. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the Indian IPO market responses and the Q2FY26 results, with not much data from the US.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, the IIP growth was steady at over 4% for the third month in a row. The good news is that the manufacturing sector appears to responding positively to the GST cuts, as demand appears to have picked up. Jerome Powell’s hint of no more rate cuts in 2025 will also be positive for the Indian markets. RBI will not be under pressure to cut the rates and risk weakening the Indian rupee further from current levels.

On the downside, the rupee once again fell sharply during the week and inched closer to the ₹89/$ mark as the US dollar strengthened. SEBI proposal to tighten mutual fund rules further could be a dampener. India fiscal deficit looks better on paper at 36.5% of full year target, but there are problems. The advance tax flows have been front-loaded into September, while capex spending pressure on the government is likely to continue.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO NOVEMBER 07, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The IPO flows will be the single major point of interest in the coming week. The final market response to mega IPOs like Lenskart Solutions, Groww, and Pine Labs will hold the key to the fortunes of the IPO market. Institutional response will be critical.
• In the coming week a major area of focus will be the USDINR levels and the RBI intervention policy. It remains to be seen if the RBI continues to defend the rupee at ₹89/$, and that could determine the trajectory of the rupee in the coming week.
• The proposed MF reforms could have far-reaching implications for mutual funds and for institutional brokers. It remains to be seen how the rhetoric shapes up in the coming week, which will eventually reflect in the responses to the paper by 17-November.
• In the absence of credible data flows from the US, markets will rely on FOMC member speak. The week will closely track key speeches delivered by Mary Daly, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, John Williams, and Chris Waller to get a sense of Fed rates trajectory.
• Key global data points. PMI, Total Vehicle Sales, Trade Deficit, Redbook, Factory Orders, JOLTS, API Crude Stocks, and Non-farm productivity (US). PMI, ECB Speak (EU); BOJ Minutes, PMI, Household Spending (Japan); PMI, MPC Vote, BOE Speak, HPI (UK); Caixin PMI, Trade Surplus, CPI, PPI (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to November 07, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX spiked sharply to 12.15 levels, especially in the last two days. The fear factor appears to be gradually building up in markets.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,722 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,638 and major support at 25,395. Immediate resistance is at 25,880 and later at 26,123. Nifty remains a Short Trade, unless it breaks above 26,041 with volumes. Longs only above that!
• Sensex closed the week at 83,939 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 83,659 and major support at 82,852. Immediate resistance is at 84,466 and later at 85,273. Sensex remains a Short Trade, till it breaks above 85,003 with volumes. Longs only above that!

The focus next week will be on the US shutdown; but in the absence of US data flows, markets will focus on the Indian IPO markets and the Q2FY26 corporate result flows.