Market outlook for the week (17-Nov to 21-Nov, 2025)

17 Nov 2025 , 09:10 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO NOVEMBER 14, 2025

The week to November 14, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex rise by 1.64% and 1.62% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities worth $730 Million. For the week, FPI action tended to fluctuate between buy and selling, with conviction still limited in EMs.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (14-Nov)	Index (07-Nov)
Nifty India Defence	4.14%	8,287.85	7,958.35
Nifty IT	3.37%	36,301.25	35,117.60
Nifty Infrastructure	2.40%	9,619.00	9,393.60
Nifty India Digital	2.18%	9,308.15	9,109.45
Nifty Capital Markets	1.96%	4,720.45	4,629.90
Nifty Mobility	1.92%	22,987.05	22,554.95
Nifty Automobiles	1.72%	27,239.80	26,779.55
Nifty Oil & Gas	1.62%	12,190.10	11,996.15
Nifty Healthcare	1.49%	14,871.85	14,653.15
Nifty Consumer Durables	1.39%	38,138.75	37,617.25
Nifty CPSE	1.13%	6,498.00	6,425.10
Nifty Banks	1.11%	58,517.55	57,876.80
Nifty Private Banks	0.92%	28,192.50	27,934.50
Nifty Metals	0.65%	10,494.75	10,426.80
Nifty PSU Banks	0.57%	8,399.90	8,352.15
Nifty MNC	0.27%	30,172.00	30,089.30
Nifty FMCG	0.22%	55,560.80	55,437.20
Nifty Non-Banks	0.14%	31,837.15	31,791.15
Nifty Chemicals	-0.37%	29,078.35	29,187.48
Nifty Realty	-0.55%	941.15	946.40

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 18 sectors gave positive returns, while 2 gave negative returns. Defence, IT, Infrastructure, Digital, Capital Markets, and Mobility recorded best gains. On the downside; only Realty and Chemicals were under pressure. Out of 18 gaining sectors; 12 sectors gained over 1%; of which 4 sectors gained over 2% during the week.

Here is a quick look at the story behind the big gainers and losers this week. On the upside, the rally was driven by hopes of higher government spending on defence and infrastructure. IT gained from hopes of better corporate spending traction. On the downside, realty is facing sharp fall in demand, while chemicals are cooling after a sharp rally.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 1.31%. The top 5 sectors delivered 2.81% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.22%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered 0.41%, showing recovery in markets. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the trade data, the IPO response, and the US Fed minutes.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY

On the positive side, WPI inflation for October dipped to -1.21%. While food prices dipped, the GST cuts led to a sharp fall in manufacturing inflation. This is good news for input costs. Also, the MF flow data shows SIP flows sustaining, even as overall AUM of mutual funds neared ₹80 Trillion in October. Cement industry to boost capacity by 75% in 3 years, by investing ₹1.20 Trillion; a clear signal that this could lead to multiplier growth effect.

On the downside, the rupee continues to be under pressure despite the RBI defence. CPI inflation at 0.25% indicates the possibility of a slowdown in consumer spending, although that is not yet confirmed. Meanwhile, FMCG companies in India are hit by inverted GST structure where GST on inputs is higher than GST on final product. Above all, India’s defence dreams could take a hit if big defence companies cannot scale up on execution abilities.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO NOVEMBER 21, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• India will announce the trade deficit figure on Monday 17-Nov. The merchandise trade deficit had widened to $32.2 Billion for September, and the October trade deficit may have just about narrowed to below $30 Billion. Pressure on CAD is expected.
• Core sector growth or infrastructure growth will be announced for October on Thursday. The core sector growth had been subdued at 3.0% in the previous month and a bounce is expected. India needs solid core sector growth to sustain IIP and GDP at higher levels.
• While the IPOs of Fujiyama Power and Capital Technologies will close next week, the only IPO opening is Excelsoft Technologies to raise ₹500 Crore. IPOs will await more clarity on the reasons for low HNI participation and tepid listing of IPOs recently.
• The US Fed will release the FOMC minutes on Wednesday giving a picture of rates trajectory of the Fed. However, the concerns remain that most of the inferences at macro level have to be drawn based on incomplete and unreliable data flows.
• Key global data points. Fed Speak, IIP growth, API Weekly Crude Stocks, Building Permits, Atlanta Fed GDP (US). EU Forecasts, CPI, PMI (EU); Trade Surplus, CPI, PMI (Japan); MPC Speak, PMI, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales (UK); PBOC Prime Loan Rate (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to November 14, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered from 12.56 levels to 11.94 levels, amid reducing uncertainty. The fear factor appears to be gradually waning compared to about 2 weeks back.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,910 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,787 and major support at 25,588. Immediate resistance is at 25,987 and later at 26,186. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,699 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 84,563 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 84,162 and major support at 83,494. Immediate resistance is at 84,831 and later at 85,499. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 83,902 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on the trade data, core sector, and the Fed minutes. Markets will also look to Fed minutes for guidance.