Market outlook for the week (20-Oct to 24-Oct)

20 Oct 2025 , 08:38 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO OCTOBER 17, 2025

The week to October 17, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gain +1.68% and +1.76% respectively. During the week, FPIs net bought Indian equities of $969 Million. For the week, FPIs showed confidence by being net buyers in four out of five trading days.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (17-Oct)	Index (10-Oct)
Nifty Realty	4.14%	933.75	896.65
Nifty Capital Markets	3.87%	4,633.35	4,460.85
Nifty FMCG	3.00%	56,616.40	54,966.45
Nifty Non-Banks	2.21%	31,017.20	30,345.95
Nifty Banks	1.95%	57,713.35	56,609.75
Nifty Automobiles	1.90%	27,228.60	26,721.20
Nifty Private Banks	1.72%	28,239.95	27,762.50
Nifty Infrastructure	1.70%	9,338.55	9,182.80
Nifty Consumer Durables	1.12%	39,018.55	38,588.10
Nifty Mobility	1.09%	22,966.65	22,719.55
Nifty Healthcare	0.85%	14,866.90	14,742.25
Nifty MNC	0.72%	30,205.00	29,990.00
Nifty Chemicals	0.39%	29,368.57	29,254.55
Nifty India Defence	0.35%	8,124.35	8,096.25
Nifty Oil & Gas	0.27%	11,498.10	11,467.25
Nifty CPSE	0.19%	6,556.00	6,543.50
Nifty Metals	-0.61%	10,199.30	10,261.55
Nifty PSU Banks	-0.74%	7,638.75	7,695.80
Nifty India Digital	-0.75%	9,148.80	9,218.25
Nifty IT	-1.85%	34,950.70	35,609.05

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 16 sectors gave positive returns, while 4 gave negative returns. Realty, Capital Markets, FMCG, and NBFCs recorded best gains. On the downside; IT, digital, PSU Bank, and Metals were under pressure. Out of 16 gaining sectors; 4 sectors gained more than 2%; of which 3 sectors gained over 3% during the previous week.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at 1.07%. The top 5 sectors delivered 3.03% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 2.27%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.12%, showing some pressure in markets. Going ahead, the key triggers in the coming week will be the US inflation data, India core sector data, and the quarterly results updates.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, India consumer inflation came in sharply lower at 1.54% and even WPI inflation showed a sharp downtrend in September. However, the FOMC minutes hint on caution on rate cuts. Also, there are big investments being committed to AI in India; with Google and TCS committing nearly $22 billion. IPO action may be tepid due to Diwali break, but big IPOs like Sify Infinit and Coca Cola India are on the anvil. More IPO action to come!

On the downside, the US shutdown continues to cast its shadow of uncertainty. Closer home, the tariffs evidenced its first big impact as September merchandise trade deficit widened to $32.15 Billion. What is worrying is that services exports were also lower. There have also been speculative attacks on the rupee, which will keep RBI under pressure. The bigger pressure could come from SGB redemption, as gold prices defy gravity!

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO OCTOBER 17, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• Core sector growth for September will be announced this week. It came in at 6.3% in August, and the surge in steel and cement output is again likely to keep the core sector growth elevated in September. That is good news for IIP and GDP figures.
• The Indian rupee will be in focus after RBI hinted at speculative attacks last week. A big $5 billion dollar selling resulted in the rupee hardening to ₹88/$. However, if RBI reserves have depleted sharply, then the RBI may be cautious going ahead.
• The US consumer inflation is expected to be announced next week, after a delay of over 10 days due to the US shutdown. This will be the key data point before the FOMC goes in for its next meeting towards the end of October. US inflation could hold the key.
• Gold and silver will be in focus next week, after the sharp sell-off from peak levels. Both, Gold and Silver, are anti-dollar trades and hence markets will be closely watching if these precious metals rally further. Both are at lifetime highs right now.
• Key global data points. IIP, Business Inventories, Fed Speak, API Crude Stocks, CPI, PMI, Fed Balance Sheet, Jobless Claims (US). PMI, ECB Speak (EU); Trade Surplus, CPI, PMI (Japan); CPI, PPI, Retail Sales (UK); GDP, IIP, Unemployment, PBOC-PLR (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to October 24, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX bounced to 11.63 levels, despite dipping to 9.78 levels during the week. The fear factor appears to have built up in this week.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,710 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,552 and major support at 25,279. Immediate resistance is at 25,825 and later at 26,098. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,438 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 83,952 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 83,381 and major support at 82,415. Immediate resistance is at 84,348 and later at 85,314. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 82,991 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The focus next week will be on India core sector data, the US inflation data and the progress on Q2FY26 India corporate results!