Market outlook for the week (29-Sep to 03-Oct, 2025)

29 Sep 2025 , 10:57 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO SEPTEMBER 26, 2025

The week to September 26, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex losing -2.65% and -2.66% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities of $(1,084) Million, as H1-B visa fiasco kept markets on tenterhooks. Here are 20 key sectors by weekly returns.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (26-Sep)	Index (19-Sep)
Nifty Metals	-1.02%	9,888.25	9,989.90
Nifty CPSE	-1.26%	6,418.40	6,500.30
Nifty Oil & Gas	-1.77%	11,132.50	11,333.30
Nifty Private Banks	-1.79%	26,488.45	26,972.40
Nifty PSU Banks	-1.84%	7,261.45	7,397.75
Nifty Banks	-1.93%	54,389.35	55,458.85
Nifty Infrastructure	-2.14%	9,039.90	9,237.50
Nifty MNC	-2.23%	29,822.10	30,502.10
Nifty FMCG	-2.53%	54,847.55	56,273.05
Nifty Automobiles	-2.70%	26,484.55	27,219.55
Nifty Mobility	-2.77%	22,293.15	22,927.10
Nifty non-Banks	-3.17%	29,189.60	30,144.20
Nifty India Defence	-4.44%	7,949.80	8,318.80
Nifty Chemicals	-4.53%	28,670.43	30,032.02
Nifty Consumer Durables	-4.65%	37,512.65	39,342.00
Nifty Healthcare	-4.88%	14,155.55	14,881.05
Nifty Capital Markets	-4.93%	4,165.60	4,381.55
Nifty Realty	-6.10%	867.15	923.50
Nifty India Digital	-6.28%	8,703.85	9,287.05
Nifty IT	-7.86%	33,702.00	36,578.25

Data Source: NSE

For the week, all 20 sectors fell over -1%, with IT, India Digital, Realty, Capital Markets, and Healthcare the worst hit. There were no sectors on the upside, but metals, CPSE and oil did relatively better. Defence corrected despite big orders farmed out. Out of 20 losing sectors; 8 sectors lost more than -4%, while 3 sectors lost -6%. It was a week of carnage.

Average returns of 20 sectors stood at -3.44%. The top 5 sectors delivered -1.54% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of -1.92%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -4.96%, showing negative momentum in markets. Going ahead, the key factors in the coming week will be the progress on trade pact and visa fees; apart from the regular data flows.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

On the positive side, India saw a sharp revival in its core sector growth for August at 6.27% along with upward revision of July core sector growth by 172 bps. The RBI meets for its monetary policy this week, with status quo broadly expected by markets. The other positive was the signal from Jerome Powell that the US will be cautious on further rate cuts. That will give some breathing room for the RBI to fine tune its own line of monetary thinking.

On the downside, the pricey H1-B visas became effective for all new applicants. The impact of the $1,00,000 fee for H1-B visas was evident in the IT sector sell-off. The trade deal with the US still appears elusive, and the US diplomatic proximity with Pakistan is not helping. The other key concern is the likely impact that the export slowdown would have on MSMEs; and consequently, on the asset quality of Indian banks.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO OCTOBER 03, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The primary trigger for the coming week will be progress on the trade talks and the H1-B visa fees. Both do not appear likely to change for now, so Indian businesses have to learn how to deal with this new trade and global movement pattern.
• India will see the IIP data for August 2025 put out this week. Last month we had seen a revival in IIP, in tandem with the revival in core sector and that trend is likely to get magnified in August. That would be indicative of better capex usage.
• The CGA will also put out the fiscal deficit update as of the end of August, which will give the first reliable indication of whether 4.4% fiscal deficit for FY26 would be feasible. With the reduced government borrowing program, the target looks feasible.
• In a big move, the RBI MPC will announce its October monetary policy early on October 01, 2025. The broad street expectation is that the RBI will maintain status quo on rates to defend the rupee. However, the RBI may surprise with a rate cut to boost growth.
• Key global data points. Fed Speak, JOLTS, API Crude Stocks, PMI, Construction Spending, Factory Orders, Unemployment Rate (US). ECB Speak, CPI, PMI (EU); BOJ Speak, IIP, PMI (Japan); Composite PMI (China); GDP, HPI, Current Account, BOE Speak (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to October 03, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX bounced from 9.97 to 11.43, amidst rising market uncertainty. The VIX closed near its weekly highs, indicating that fear factor was quite high!

• Nifty closed the week at 24,655 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 24,567 and major support at 24,327. Immediate resistance is at 24,806 and later at 25,045. Nifty remains a Short Trade, unless it breaks above 24,925 with volumes. Longs only above that!
• Sensex closed the week at 80,426 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 80,162 and major support at 79,461. Immediate resistance is at 80,862 and later at 81,563. Sensex remains a Short Trade, till it breaks above 81,275 with volumes. Longs only above that!

The focus next week will be on the RBI monetary policy, IIP, fiscal deficit, and the US unemployment numbers. For now, the H1-B visa issue will dominate!