Nifty closes April in the Green; but annual returns still tepid

1 May 2025 , 10:35 PM

NIFTY HIGHER IN APRIL, FPIS TURN NET BUYERS

The April 2025 rally in the Nifty was just 3.5%, compared to 6.3% in March 2025. However, the good news was that the positive trend in the Nifty continued for second month in a row. FPI sentiments turned around sharply in the second half of April. The first fortnight of April saw FPI selling to the tune of $(3.96) Billion in equities. However, FPIs were net buyers in equities worth $4.57 Billion in the second fortnight of April, resulting in net FPI inflows of $510 Million in April overall. For now, reciprocal tariffs are on hold for 90 days, but the big news flow that Indian investors are looking forward to is a trade deal between India and the US. Meanwhile, the monetary support has been evident with a third rate cut likely in June.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY POSITIVE IN APRIL 2025

With Nifty index up 3.46% in April 2025, there were 33 gainers and 17 losers in terms of 1-month returns. While the positive side returns averaged 7.20%, the negative side returns were -4.07%, largely triggered by metal stocks. Here are the top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
INDUSINDBK	833.00	29.01%	-44.69%	1,550.00	606.00	37.46%	46.26%
TATACONSUM	1,160.00	16.36%	5.18%	1,250.10	882.90	31.39%	7.21%
ETERNAL	231.43	15.02%	19.57%	304.70	146.30	58.19%	24.05%
JIOFIN	259.08	14.47%	-30.92%	385.85	198.65	30.42%	32.85%
SBILIFE	1,761.30	14.08%	22.92%	1,936.00	1,307.70	34.69%	9.02%
TITAN	3,356.30	10.33%	-5.84%	3,867.00	2,925.00	14.75%	13.21%
RELIANCE	1,395.00	10.19%	-52.11%	1,608.80	1,114.85	25.13%	13.29%
M&M	2,919.50	9.87%	35.82%	3,270.95	2,001.00	45.90%	10.74%
HDFCLIFE	745.00	8.46%	27.42%	761.20	511.40	45.68%	2.13%
BHARTIARTL	1,854.80	7.56%	41.00%	1,904.30	1,219.05	52.15%	2.60%
AXISBANK	1,183.50	7.53%	1.64%	1,339.65	933.50	26.78%	11.66%
CIPLA	1,550.00	7.48%	10.72%	1,702.05	1,317.25	17.67%	8.93%
MARUTI	12,218.00	6.38%	-4.37%	13,680.00	10,725.00	13.92%	10.69%
NESTLEIND	2,380.00	6.11%	-4.75%	2,778.00	2,110.00	12.80%	14.33%
TECHM	1,498.00	5.98%	18.96%	1,807.70	1,193.65	25.50%	17.13%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 5 Financials, 3 Consumer stocks, and 2 Auto stocks. The rate cut in February and April and expectations of another rate cut in June, kept financials in the forefront. There was a clear shift towards domestic plays. If you look at the bottom 10 stocks, deep cuts were seen in metal players like Tata Steel and Hindalco. Also, Infosys and Wipro took a sharp cut post the Q4FY25 results.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO APRIL 2025

With Nifty index 1-Year returns improving to 7.65% in April 2025, there were 28 gainers and 22 losers. While the positive side returns were 19.29%, the negative side were -16.97%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BHARTIARTL	1,854.80	7.56%	41.00%	1,904.30	1,219.05	52.15%	2.60%
KOTAKBANK	2,202.00	1.70%	35.97%	2,301.90	1,543.85	42.63%	4.34%
M&M	2,919.50	9.87%	35.82%	3,270.95	2,001.00	45.90%	10.74%
BEL	312.95	4.24%	34.37%	340.50	221.00	41.61%	8.09%
HDFCLIFE	745.00	8.46%	27.42%	761.20	511.40	45.68%	2.13%
HDFCBANK	1,920.10	5.29%	26.64%	1,978.90	1,426.80	34.57%	2.97%
BAJFINANCE	8,613.50	-3.48%	24.71%	9,660.00	6,375.70	35.10%	10.83%
ICICIBANK	1,424.30	5.83%	24.04%	1,438.30	1,051.05	35.51%	0.97%
SBILIFE	1,761.30	14.08%	22.92%	1,936.00	1,307.70	34.69%	9.02%
SUNPHARMA	1,821.60	5.63%	21.98%	1,960.35	1,377.20	32.27%	7.08%
EICHERMOT	5,573.50	4.10%	21.09%	5,906.50	4,253.85	31.02%	5.64%
BAJAJFINSV	1,951.00	-2.78%	20.84%	2,135.00	1,419.05	37.49%	8.62%
ETERNAL	231.43	15.02%	19.57%	304.70	146.30	58.19%	24.05%
TECHM	1,498.00	5.98%	18.96%	1,807.70	1,193.65	25.50%	17.13%
APOLLOHOSP	6,970.00	5.45%	17.32%	7,545.35	5,693.20	22.43%	7.63%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 7 BFSI companies, 2 Healthcare stocks, and 2 auto plays. If you look at the bottom 15, Reliance Industries saw the deepest cuts in the year; but others like IndusInd Bank, Wipro, Tata Motors, and Jio Finance also saw fairly high value depletion. In the last couple of months, the recovery in markets has been driven by the domestic stories.

NIFTY RESILIENCE GAINS HEFT IN APRIL 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from the 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year improved to 14.34%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, 6 stocks bounced over 40% from the lows. A total of 17 stocks have bounced more than 30% and 30 stocks bounced more than 20%, from the lows of the year.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
ETERNAL	231.43	15.02%	19.57%	304.70	146.30	58.19%	24.05%
BHARTIARTL	1,854.80	7.56%	41.00%	1,904.30	1,219.05	52.15%	2.60%
M&M	2,919.50	9.87%	35.82%	3,270.95	2,001.00	45.90%	10.74%
HDFCLIFE	745.00	8.46%	27.42%	761.20	511.40	45.68%	2.13%
KOTAKBANK	2,202.00	1.70%	35.97%	2,301.90	1,543.85	42.63%	4.34%
BEL	312.95	4.24%	34.37%	340.50	221.00	41.61%	8.09%
SHRIRAMFIN	609.00	-6.75%	-76.03%	730.45	438.60	38.85%	16.63%
BAJAJFINSV	1,951.00	-2.78%	20.84%	2,135.00	1,419.05	37.49%	8.62%
INDUSINDBK	833.00	29.01%	-44.69%	1,550.00	606.00	37.46%	46.26%
ICICIBANK	1,424.30	5.83%	24.04%	1,438.30	1,051.05	35.51%	0.97%
BAJFINANCE	8,613.50	-3.48%	24.71%	9,660.00	6,375.70	35.10%	10.83%
SBILIFE	1,761.30	14.08%	22.92%	1,936.00	1,307.70	34.69%	9.02%
HDFCBANK	1,920.10	5.29%	26.64%	1,978.90	1,426.80	34.57%	2.97%
SUNPHARMA	1,821.60	5.63%	21.98%	1,960.35	1,377.20	32.27%	7.08%
TATACONSUM	1,160.00	16.36%	5.18%	1,250.10	882.90	31.39%	7.21%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 9 BFSI stocks and 3 Consumer Plays. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by several marquee FMCG and IT stocks like (ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, TCS, and Infosys). Stocks like Eternal (Zomato), Bharti Airtel, and BEL are at the top on multiple counts. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 43.55% while the top 20 stocks bounced 37.22% from yearly lows.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the swing factor. Nifty had a disappointing swing factor of 7.4%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 6 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 16 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has actually deteriorated in April 2025.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
ICICIBANK	1,424.30	5.83%	24.04%	1,438.30	1,051.05	35.51%	0.97%
HDFCLIFE	745.00	8.46%	27.42%	761.20	511.40	45.68%	2.13%
BHARTIARTL	1,854.80	7.56%	41.00%	1,904.30	1,219.05	52.15%	2.60%
HDFCBANK	1,920.10	5.29%	26.64%	1,978.90	1,426.80	34.57%	2.97%
KOTAKBANK	2,202.00	1.70%	35.97%	2,301.90	1,543.85	42.63%	4.34%
JSWSTEEL	1,025.10	-3.14%	16.73%	1,074.90	823.80	24.44%	4.63%
GRASIM	2,722.10	4.84%	13.51%	2,877.75	2,171.60	25.35%	5.41%
EICHERMOT	5,573.50	4.10%	21.09%	5,906.50	4,253.85	31.02%	5.64%
ULTRACEMCO	11,635.00	1.14%	16.74%	12,339.00	9,408.05	23.67%	5.71%
SUNPHARMA	1,821.60	5.63%	21.98%	1,960.35	1,377.20	32.27%	7.08%
TATACONSUM	1,160.00	16.36%	5.18%	1,250.10	882.90	31.39%	7.21%
APOLLOHOSP	6,970.00	5.45%	17.32%	7,545.35	5,693.20	22.43%	7.63%
BEL	312.95	4.24%	34.37%	340.50	221.00	41.61%	8.09%
BAJAJFINSV	1,951.00	-2.78%	20.84%	2,135.00	1,419.05	37.49%	8.62%
CIPLA	1,550.00	7.48%	10.72%	1,702.05	1,317.25	17.67%	8.93%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 5 Financials, 3 Commodity stocks, and 3 Healthcare plays.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by stocks like IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Adani Enterprises, Hero Moto, Trent, and Bajaj Auto. Autos continue to be under pressure, especially the two-wheelers. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 4.15% while the top 20 stocks averaged 6.74% for April 2025. Other than financials, healthcare appears to be showing a lot of swing momentum.