Nifty under stress; India domestic stories shine

3 Oct 2025 , 10:57 AM

H1-B VISA FEE FIASCO KEEPS NIFTY GUESSING

After falling in July and August, the Nifty 50 showed a marginal recovery of 0.75% in September 2025, largely driven by domestically oriented stocks like banking, autos, and metals. While September was the first full month of 50% tariffs, it also saw the H1-B visa fee hiked nearly 50-fold to $1,00,000 or approximately ₹89 lakhs. For the month of September, FPIs were net sellers in equities to the tune of $2.71 Billion, after selling $3.00 Billion in August 2025. With tariffs clearly hitting exports, focus has shifted to predominantly domestic stories like banking, autos, and metals. These were the stocks that outperformed in the month of September 2025, amidst the global headwinds.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – DOMESTIC STORIES HOLD NIFTY IN SEP-25

Nifty was up 0.75% in September 2025, with 27 gainers and 23 losers in terms of 1-month returns. While the positive side returns averaged 5.60%, the negative side returns averaged -3.69%, triggered by FMCG and IT stocks. Here are top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
EICHERMOT	7,010.00	14.45%	37.97%	7,122.50	4,508.75	55.48%	1.58%
BAJFINANCE	999.00	12.88%	-87.22%	1,036.00	645.10	54.86%	3.57%
ADANIENT	2,509.00	11.80%	-19.83%	3,211.00	2,025.00	23.90%	21.86%
TATASTEEL	169.05	9.39%	1.46%	174.44	122.62	37.86%	3.09%
JSWSTEEL	1,140.30	9.31%	12.05%	1,167.90	880.00	29.58%	2.36%
SBIN	873.70	8.50%	8.48%	880.50	680.00	28.49%	0.77%
AXISBANK	1,131.00	8.32%	-11.07%	1,275.00	933.50	21.16%	11.29%
BEL	403.80	8.27%	36.29%	436.00	240.25	68.07%	7.39%
MARUTI	16,035.00	8.07%	18.44%	16,435.00	10,725.00	49.51%	2.43%
HINDALCO	764.00	7.08%	0.89%	772.65	546.45	39.81%	1.12%
M&M	3,435.00	6.83%	7.36%	3,723.80	2,425.00	41.65%	7.76%
BAJAJFINSV	2,001.00	5.81%	0.70%	2,135.00	1,551.65	28.96%	6.28%
SHRIRAMFIN	617.85	5.44%	-83.10%	728.99	493.35	25.24%	15.25%
TATACONSUM	1,132.50	5.42%	-6.53%	1,213.65	882.90	28.27%	6.69%
ADANIPORTS	1,406.10	5.36%	-5.05%	1,494.00	995.65	41.22%	5.88%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 5 Financial Stocks, 3 Metal Stocks, 3 Auto Stocks, while the others were sectorally spread out. The predominance of auto and financials was due to expectations of more rate cuts by the RBI as well as a specific India story. Metal stocks gained from the Involution Plans of the Chinese government as well as improving Indo-China trade relations.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO SEPTEMBER 2025

With Nifty index 1-Year returns at -5.99% in September 2025, there were 18 gainers and 32 losers. While the positive side returns were 10.92%, the negative side were -18.30%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
EICHERMOT	7,010.00	14.45%	37.97%	7,122.50	4,508.75	55.48%	1.58%
BEL	403.80	8.27%	36.29%	436.00	240.25	68.07%	7.39%
ETERNAL	325.80	3.47%	19.21%	343.90	194.80	67.25%	5.26%
MARUTI	16,035.00	8.07%	18.44%	16,435.00	10,725.00	49.51%	2.43%
INDIGO	5,591.00	1.08%	15.39%	6,232.50	3,780.00	47.91%	10.29%
JSWSTEEL	1,140.30	9.31%	12.05%	1,167.90	880.00	29.58%	2.36%
MAXHEALTH	1,120.00	-3.66%	11.79%	1,314.30	888.90	26.00%	14.78%
BHARTIARTL	1,883.00	0.71%	9.66%	2,045.80	1,511.00	24.62%	7.96%
SBIN	873.70	8.50%	8.48%	880.50	680.00	28.49%	0.77%
M&M	3,435.00	6.83%	7.36%	3,723.80	2,425.00	41.65%	7.76%
KOTAKBANK	1,996.00	1.60%	6.36%	2,301.90	1,679.05	18.88%	13.29%
HDFCLIFE	755.30	-2.00%	3.62%	820.75	584.30	29.27%	7.97%
ICICIBANK	1,348.90	-3.56%	3.18%	1,500.00	1,186.00	13.74%	10.07%
APOLLOHOSP	7,435.00	-2.18%	2.90%	7,980.00	6,001.00	23.90%	6.83%
TATASTEEL	169.05	9.39%	1.46%	174.44	122.62	37.86%	3.09%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 4 BFSI companies, 3 Auto stocks, 2 Consumer Stocks, and 2 Metal Stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, there were deep cuts in IT and FMCG stocks. Some of the big hits in the year include stocks like Trent, TCS, Asian Paints, Infosys, HCL Tech, and ITC Ltd. In fact, several PSUs like NTPC, Coal India, and Power Grid have also lagged in the last 1 year.

NIFTY BOUNCE SHOWS RESILIENCE IN SEPTEMBER 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year stood at 13.19%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, 4 stocks bounced over 50% from lows. A total of 12 stocks bounced more than 30% and 30 stocks bounced more than 20%, from the lows of the year.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	403.80	8.27%	36.29%	436.00	240.25	68.07%	7.39%
ETERNAL	325.80	3.47%	19.21%	343.90	194.80	67.25%	5.26%
EICHERMOT	7,010.00	14.45%	37.97%	7,122.50	4,508.75	55.48%	1.58%
BAJFINANCE	999.00	12.88%	-87.22%	1,036.00	645.10	54.86%	3.57%
MARUTI	16,035.00	8.07%	18.44%	16,435.00	10,725.00	49.51%	2.43%
JIOFIN	294.00	-5.61%	-18.08%	358.15	198.65	48.00%	17.91%
INDIGO	5,591.00	1.08%	15.39%	6,232.50	3,780.00	47.91%	10.29%
M&M	3,435.00	6.83%	7.36%	3,723.80	2,425.00	41.65%	7.76%
ADANIPORTS	1,406.10	5.36%	-5.05%	1,494.00	995.65	41.22%	5.88%
HINDALCO	764.00	7.08%	0.89%	772.65	546.45	39.81%	1.12%
TATASTEEL	169.05	9.39%	1.46%	174.44	122.62	37.86%	3.09%
SBILIFE	1,790.90	-0.93%	-4.99%	1,912.00	1,372.55	30.48%	6.33%
JSWSTEEL	1,140.30	9.31%	12.05%	1,167.90	880.00	29.58%	2.36%
HDFCLIFE	755.30	-2.00%	3.62%	820.75	584.30	29.27%	7.97%
BAJAJFINSV	2,001.00	5.81%	0.70%	2,135.00	1,551.65	28.96%	6.28%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 had 5 BFSI stocks, 3 Auto stocks, 3 Metal Stocks, and 2 Consumer Stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, the strugglers had marquee stocks like (TCS, ITC, Sun Pharma, Trent, Wipro, HCL Tech, Nestle India, Infosys, and Asian Paints). Stocks like Eternal (Zomato), Eicher Motors, and Indigo Airways are at the top on multiple counts. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 51.38% while the top 20 stocks bounced 40.27% from lows on average.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, more favourable the swing. Nifty swing improved from 7.04% in in August to 4.12% in September 2025. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 8 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while 21 stocks are under 10% short of their yearly highs.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SBIN	873.70	8.50%	8.48%	880.50	680.00	28.49%	0.77%
HINDALCO	764.00	7.08%	0.89%	772.65	546.45	39.81%	1.12%
EICHERMOT	7,010.00	14.45%	37.97%	7,122.50	4,508.75	55.48%	1.58%
JSWSTEEL	1,140.30	9.31%	12.05%	1,167.90	880.00	29.58%	2.36%
MARUTI	16,035.00	8.07%	18.44%	16,435.00	10,725.00	49.51%	2.43%
TATASTEEL	169.05	9.39%	1.46%	174.44	122.62	37.86%	3.09%
BAJFINANCE	999.00	12.88%	-87.22%	1,036.00	645.10	54.86%	3.57%
GRASIM	2,769.00	-1.03%	-1.30%	2,911.00	2,276.95	21.61%	4.88%
ETERNAL	325.80	3.47%	19.21%	343.90	194.80	67.25%	5.26%
ADANIPORTS	1,406.10	5.36%	-5.05%	1,494.00	995.65	41.22%	5.88%
BAJAJFINSV	2,001.00	5.81%	0.70%	2,135.00	1,551.65	28.96%	6.28%
SBILIFE	1,790.90	-0.93%	-4.99%	1,912.00	1,372.55	30.48%	6.33%
HDFCBANK	952.50	-0.14%	-45.78%	1,018.85	806.50	18.10%	6.51%
ULTRACEMCO	12,240.00	-4.74%	0.74%	13,097.00	10,047.85	21.82%	6.54%
TATACONSUM	1,132.50	5.42%	-6.53%	1,213.65	882.90	28.27%	6.69%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 5 Financials, 5 Commodity Stocks, and 3 Auto Stocks.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by bottom-up stories like Trent, TCS, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, HCL Tech, and Asian Paints. Incidentally, Tata group is prominent at the bottom in terms of swing. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 3.10% while the top 20 stocks averaged 5.04% for September 2025. For now, domestic stories are closer to the top; but the big favourites this month appear to be metals and auto stocks; the latter also getting a boost from GST cuts!