Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to August 30, 2025

1 Sep 2025 , 06:01 PM

THE WEEK WAS ABOUT TARIFFS AND GDP SURPRISE

On Wednesday, the 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the US became effective. This is likely to impact exports to the tune of nearly $50 billion, especially in segments like textiles, gems & jewellery, handicrafts, chemicals, and shrimps. The impact on jobs and NPAs will be big.

However, the week closed with positive news on the GDP front, growing at 7.8% for Q1FY26. That is nearly 130 bps better than expected. While manufacturing and construction were robust; the big alpha in the quarter came from the services (tertiary) sector.

• US BOND YIELDS RANGE BOUND FOR THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 29, 2025	4.226	4.209	4.242	4.207
Aug 28, 2025	4.207	4.234	4.250	4.203
Aug 27, 2025	4.238	4.269	4.291	4.232
Aug 26, 2025	4.256	4.273	4.312	4.252
Aug 25, 2025	4.275	4.265	4.294	4.263
Aug 22, 2025	4.258	4.328	4.339	4.242

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US bond yields, this week, were in a limited range. While the street is bending towards a rate cut of 25 bps in September, the PCE (headline and core) inflation were elevated. GDP was also robust, improving the Q2 second estimate to 3.3%. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.312% and a low of 4.203%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) CLOSES FLAT FOR THE WEEK

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 29, 2025	97.77	97.87	98.13	97.69
Aug 28, 2025	97.81	98.12	98.23	97.74
Aug 27, 2025	98.23	98.25	98.73	98.15
Aug 26, 2025	98.22	98.47	98.56	98.08
Aug 25, 2025	98.43	97.72	98.54	97.71
Aug 22, 2025	97.72	98.60	98.83	97.56

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US dollar index (DXY) rallied above 98 during the week, but tapered and closed flat. For the week, the dollar index retreated after the reciprocal tariffs on India became effective. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.73 and a low of 97.69 this week. The 100 level look a long-way off now.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS EDGE UP FURTHER

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for the last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
Aug 29, 2025	6.588	6.553	6.615	6.536
Aug 28, 2025	6.538	6.600	6.620	6.537
Aug 27, 2025	6.600	6.600	6.600	6.600
Aug 26, 2025	6.617	6.601	6.650	6.593
Aug 25, 2025	6.592	6.551	6.600	6.543
Aug 22, 2025	6.549	6.529	6.561	6.529

Data Source: RBI

India bond yields closed higher at 6.588% for the week after the tariffs raised the bogey of imported inflation coming into India. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.650% and low of 6.536%. For the month of August, the 10-year bond yields rallied by around 30 bps.

• RUPEE WEAKENS TO AN ALL-TIME LOW AFTER TARIFFS

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
Aug 29, 2025	88.174	87.591	88.313	87.575
Aug 28, 2025	87.591	87.659	87.696	87.520
Aug 27, 2025	87.661	87.674	87.883	87.607
Aug 26, 2025	87.635	87.623	87.805	87.582
Aug 25, 2025	87.608	87.310	87.623	87.274
Aug 22, 2025	87.331	87.266	87.551	87.179

Data Source: RBI

USDINR weakened sharply from ₹87.331/$ to ₹88.174/$, despite flat dollar index and flat crude prices. The dollar weakness intensified post-tariff imposition, as banks rushed to buy forward cover on the dollar. Dollar demand from importers continues. Last week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.274/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.313/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FLAT AS DEMAND CONCERNS REMAIN

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
Aug 29, 2025	67.48	67.59	67.94	67.29
Aug 28, 2025	67.98	67.15	68.06	66.81
Aug 27, 2025	67.44	66.85	67.51	66.37
Aug 26, 2025	66.70	68.14	68.16	66.60
Aug 25, 2025	68.22	67.39	68.49	67.04
Aug 22, 2025	67.22	67.05	67.45	66.89

Data Source: Bloomberg

With Trump going aggressive on Russian oil, there are fears that oil shortfall may eventually prevail. However, at a macro level, there still are demand concerns around oil. Last week, Brent Crude touched a high of $68.49/bbl and a low of $66.37/bbl. For now, demand remains the bigger concern for oil prices.

• SPOT GOLD RALLIES DURING THE WEEK

The table captures the international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
Aug 29, 2025	3,448.00	3,418.20	3,454.08	3,404.29
Aug 28, 2025	3,417.20	3,394.18	3,423.36	3,384.46
Aug 27, 2025	3,397.42	3,392.88	3,398.94	3,373.76
Aug 26, 2025	3,392.88	3,366.78	3,394.33	3,351.26
Aug 25, 2025	3,366.79	3,371.23	3,376.47	3,359.69
Aug 24, 2025	3,369.16	3,368.75	3,371.05	3,366.06
Aug 22, 2025	3,372.11	3,338.76	3,379.01	3,321.49

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold prices closed higher at $3,448/oz as global macro risks have risen with changing equations. The gold/silver ratio is favouring silver, but safe haven demand favours gold. During the week, gold touched a high of $3,454.08/oz and a low of $3,351.26/oz.