Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to October 18, 2025

20 Oct 2025 , 01:41 PM

WEEKLY FOCUS ON Q2FY26 CORPORATE RESULTS

During the week, India inflation came at a 99-month low, but RBI MPC was cautious about timing of rate cuts. The real boost came from big ticket results by companies in the week. Impact of RIL, ICICI Bank, Ultratech, and HDFC Bank results will be felt next week.

For the coming week, the long-awaited US inflation will be put out, albeit with insufficient data. India will announce September core sector growth and the quarterly results of Indian companies will be closely watch for top-line and bottom-line performance.

• US BOND YIELDS EDGE LOWER ON FED-SPEAK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 6 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
17-Oct-25	4.009	3.957	4.018	3.936
16-Oct-25	3.976	4.032	4.051	3.967
15-Oct-25	4.045	4.032	4.047	3.999
14-Oct-25	4.022	4.051	4.069	3.998
13-Oct-25	4.055	4.078	4.085	4.050
12-Oct-25	4.076	4.059	4.081	4.064
10-Oct-25	4.051	4.136	4.140	4.032

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the third week in a row, the US bond yields tapered. This week it edged lower from 4.051% to 4.009%; even briefly dipping below 4% mark. Powell and Kashkari have underlined in their speeches, that more rate cuts were on the cards to stave off a jobs crisis. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.085% and a low of 3.936%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) STABLE DESPITE US SHUTDOWN

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
17-Oct-25	98.43	98.26	98.55	98.03
16-Oct-25	98.34	98.67	98.70	98.30
15-Oct-25	98.79	99.05	99.08	98.65
14-Oct-25	99.05	99.30	99.47	98.99
13-Oct-25	99.27	98.94	99.35	98.83
10-Oct-25	98.98	99.39	99.43	98.81

Data Source: Bloomberg

While the weekly closing was lower than last week, the good news is that the dollar index stayed above 98 levels through the week. The current uncertainty is likely to drive portfolio flows towards dollar assets. The 100-level remains elusive, for now. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.47 and a low of 98.03 during the week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS SOFTEN

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
17-Oct-25	6.506	6.504	6.520	6.477
16-Oct-25	6.503	6.492	6.505	6.492
15-Oct-25	6.484	6.504	6.504	6.484
14-Oct-25	6.507	6.518	6.527	6.506
13-Oct-25	6.518	6.514	6.519	6.512
10-Oct-25	6.531	6.523	6.535	6.515

Data Source: RBI

After 4 weeks of bond yields hardening, this week saw yields tapering from 6.531% to 6.506%. This is despite RBI minutes staying sceptical about rate cuts in December. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.527% and a low of 6.477%. The tapering of bond yields is more on the back of lower borrowings and better hang of fiscal deficit.

• RBI INDULGES IN BIG-BANG DOLLAR SELLING

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
17-Oct-25	88.003	87.939	88.119	87.716
16-Oct-25	87.991	87.754	88.058	87.611
15-Oct-25	87.810	88.729	88.799	87.809
14-Oct-25	88.782	88.683	88.827	88.627
13-Oct-25	88.665	88.726	88.798	88.564
10-Oct-25	88.757	88.817	88.826	88.494

Data Source: RBI

The week saw one of the sharpest rallies in the Indian rupee as the RBI sold $5 billion to stave off a speculative attack on the rupee. Skipping the rate cut in October also helped the rupee, as did weak crude prices at $61.29/bbl. Hedging pressures continue from banks. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹87.611/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.827/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS ON SUPPLY GLUT WORRIES

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
17-Oct-25	61.29	61.00	61.47	60.14
16-Oct-25	61.06	62.40	62.75	60.84
15-Oct-25	61.91	62.33	63.04	61.79
14-Oct-25	62.39	63.49	63.63	61.50
13-Oct-25	63.32	62.90	63.95	62.90
10-Oct-25	62.73	65.27	65.36	62.00

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude fell for the third week in a row, closing at $61.29/bbl. The fall was largely on concerns over supply boost by OPEC and tepid demand amid the US shutdown. Russian curbs on oil exports are less of an issue now. It is all about widening supply gap pushing down prices. Brent touched a high of $63.95/bbl and a low of $60.14/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD RALLIES UP TO 9% THIS WEEK

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
17-Oct-25	4,249.98	4,328.75	4,379.44	4,186.91
16-Oct-25	4,326.18	4,209.81	4,330.91	4,199.60
15-Oct-25	4,208.58	4,144.40	4,218.42	4,140.45
14-Oct-25	4,142.31	4,108.98	4,180.39	4,090.49
13-Oct-25	4,110.70	4,018.79	4,117.14	4,008.80
12-Oct-25	4,035.12	4,014.43	4,059.81	4,008.75
10-Oct-25	4,018.30	3,977.58	4,022.96	3,946.80

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold spiked from $4,018.30/oz to $4,249.98/oz this week. At one point, Spot Gold touched a high of $4,379.44/oz. In India, spot 24K gold crossed ₹1,30,860 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $4,379.44/oz and low of $4,008.75/oz. It looks like Goldman Sachs’ spot gold price target for December 2026 at $4,900/oz, may happen earlier!