Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to September 27, 2025

29 Sep 2025 , 11:58 AM

INDO-US DEBATE SHIFTS FROM TRADE DEAL TO H1-B VISAS

The week was dominated by the H1-B visa fiasco, which kept Indian IT companies on tenterhooks. However, longer term impact would be limited. The US trade deal continues to be elusive, and Trump’s diplomatic proximity to Pakistan has been making India restive.

Next week, the RBI monetary policy will be a key announcement. In addition, the India IIP data and fiscal deficit update are also expected. US unemployment data will be updated for September, a key input for the next Fed policy. For now, focus remains on H1-B visas.

• US BOND YIELDS RALLY DURING THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Sep-25	4.187	4.170	4.197	4.152
25-Sep-25	4.174	4.145	4.201	4.135
24-Sep-25	4.147	4.104	4.152	4.098
23-Sep-25	4.118	4.143	4.149	4.104
22-Sep-25	4.145	4.139	4.152	4.122
19-Sep-25	4.139	4.110	4.145	4.106

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the second week in a row, the US bond yields inched up to 4.187% on the back of mixed expectations on rates. Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman have given conflicting views on rate trajectory. The rise in bond yields could also be due to pre-emptive selling in bonds. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.201% and a low of 4.098%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) DISPLAYS A LATE BOUNCE

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Sep-25	98.15	98.50	98.53	98.13
25-Sep-25	98.55	97.82	98.61	97.74
24-Sep-25	97.87	97.24	97.92	97.22
23-Sep-25	97.26	97.32	97.46	97.20
22-Sep-25	97.34	97.65	97.82	97.30
19-Sep-25	97.64	97.34	97.81	97.27

Data Source: Bloomberg

After falling below 97 levels, the US dollar index bounced this week to close above 98; but still well short of the psychological 100 mark. Even as the de-dollarization trend continues, the bounce looked more like short-covering of dollar positions. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.61 and a low of 97.20 during the current week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS SPIKED THIS WEEK

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Sep-25	6.517	6.504	6.524	6.489
25-Sep-25	6.492	6.489	6.497	6.481
24-Sep-25	6.483	6.461	6.488	6.460
23-Sep-25	6.467	6.486	6.502	6.467
22-Sep-25	6.481	6.485	6.504	6.481
19-Sep-25	6.489	6.510	6.531	6.485

Data Source: RBI

India bond yields rallied for the second week from 6.489% to 6.517% levels. Markets are increasingly veering towards the view that RBI will hold back on rate cuts in its October meet. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.524% and a low of 6.460%. For FY26, government borrowings are ₹10,000 Crore lower, which should soften yields.

• RUPEE WEAKENS FURTHER ON H1-B VISA WOES

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
26-Sep-25	88.677	88.774	88.792	88.638
25-Sep-25	88.768	88.732	88.818	88.599
24-Sep-25	88.777	88.790	88.939	88.673
23-Sep-25	88.808	88.304	88.821	88.256
22-Sep-25	88.303	88.181	88.346	88.116
19-Sep-25	88.100	88.207	88.343	88.052

Data Source: RBI

USDINR weakened sharply this week from ₹88.100/$ to ₹88.677/$ levels. USDINR touched a low of ₹88.939/$ this week, with some RBI intervention at ₹89/$. RBI may avoid a rate cut in October, just to defend the rupee from weakening. Hedging pressures continue from banks. For the week, the USDINR touched a high of ₹88.116/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.939/$.

• BRENT CRUDE SHARPLY HIGHER ON RUSSIAN SUPPLY CUTS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
26-Sep-25	70.13	69.54	70.76	69.11
25-Sep-25	69.42	69.04	69.68	68.42
24-Sep-25	69.31	67.88	69.37	67.51
23-Sep-25	67.63	66.59	68.09	66.10
22-Sep-25	66.57	66.62	67.31	65.94
19-Sep-25	66.68	67.46	67.57	66.44

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude rallied sharply to above $70/bbl after Russia hinted at a ban on crude oil exports due to oil losses from Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia wants to preserve oil for domestic use first, with the upcoming winter. For now, the OPEC additional supplies are not too material. Brent Crude touched a high of $70.76/bbl and a low of $65.94/bbl.

• SPOT GOLD CLOSES IN ON $3,800/OZ

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
26-Sep-25	3,760.24	3,748.18	3,783.88	3,734.58
25-Sep-25	3,749.37	3,736.67	3,761.66	3,722.04
24-Sep-25	3,736.29	3,765.78	3,779.54	3,717.30
23-Sep-25	3,764.19	3,746.47	3,791.11	3,736.73
22-Sep-25	3,746.47	3,686.80	3,749.25	3,683.62
21-Sep-25	3,686.38	3,687.53	3,692.17	3,683.62
19-Sep-25	3,684.98	3,645.04	3,686.33	3,632.28

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold spiked from $3,684.98/oz to $3,760.24/oz this week, as de-dollarization gave a leg-up to gold prices. In India, spot 24K gold crossed ₹1,15,000 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $3,791.11/oz and low of $3,683.62/oz. The next trigger for gold will be Fed rate cuts, which will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.