Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to December 06, 2025

8 Dec 2025 , 05:16 PM

RBI SURPRISES THE STREET WITH A DOVISH MESSAGE 

RBI MPC surprised the street with a 25-bps rate cut, combined with liquidity infusion of ₹1 Trillion. In addition, the RBI also upped its FY26 GDP growth estimate by 50 bps to 7.3%, while it cut its FY26 inflation estimates by 60 bps to 2.0%; from 4.8% in February 2025. 

The week ahead will see the all-important India inflation and the Fed policy statement. India inflation will be key to ratify RBI dovishness. Markets will be closely watching Fed rate action, especially after the PCE inflation for September came in higher at 2.8%. 

1. US BOND YIELDS HARDEN DURING THE WEEK 

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 6 trading sessions.  

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
05-Dec-25	4.139	4.100	4.145	4.088
04-Dec-25	4.108	4.073	4.114	4.073
03-Dec-25	4.058	4.088	4.090	4.050
02-Dec-25	4.088	4.088	4.116	4.081
01-Dec-25	4.096	4.034	4.098	4.027
28-Nov-25	4.019	4.008	4.036	3.961

Data Source: Bloomberg 

The US bond yields hardened in line with the 2.8% PCE inflation data. For the week, it was up from 4.019% to 4.139%, closing near the high point of the week. Hopes of a rate cut reduced with the sharp spike in PCE inflation this week. For the week, the US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.145% and a low of 4.027%. 

1. US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); NOW WELL BELOW 100 

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
05-Dec-25	98.99	99.04	99.13	98.81
04-Dec-25	98.99	98.92	99.08	98.76
03-Dec-25	98.85	99.28	99.29	98.82
02-Dec-25	99.36	99.45	99.57	99.32
01-Dec-25	99.41	99.48	99.51	99.01
28-Nov-25	99.44	99.57	99.82	99.38

Data Source: Bloomberg 

After breaching above the 100 levels 2 weeks back, the dollar Index weakened on doubts over sustaining higher growth. The euphoria of the end of US shutdown is now done. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.57 and a low of 98.76 this week. The DXY had given a close above 100 two weeks back; for the first time since 20-May 2025. 

1. INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS SUBDUED IN A RANGE 

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
05-Dec-25	6.500	6.530	6.530	6.489
04-Dec-25	6.531	6.534	6.558	6.530
03-Dec-25	6.526	6.513	6.547	6.513
02-Dec-25	6.503	6.575	6.578	6.503
01-Dec-25	6.575	6.547	6.575	6.542
28-Nov-25	6.528	6.513	6.570	6.500

Data Source: RBI 

For the week, the India bond yields edged marginally lower from 6.528% to 6.500%. Most of the fall in yields was seen on Friday after the RBI cut rates by 25 bps and announced liquidity infusion of ₹1,00,000 crore. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.578% and a low of 6.489%. However, a higher fiscal deficit could limit downsides to yield. 

1. RUPEE INTO THE NERVOUS NINETIES 

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
05-Dec-25	89.945	89.900	90.076	89.700
04-Dec-25	89.837	90.150	90.462	89.726
03-Dec-25	90.171	89.923	90.329	89.857
02-Dec-25	89.918	89.606	90.014	89.591
01-Dec-25	89.613	89.325	89.800	89.325
28-Nov-25	89.357	89.361	89.516	89.316

Data Source: RBI 

The USDINR weakened this week from ₹89.357/$ to ₹89.945/$. The rupee crossed 90/$ on 4 out of 5 trading days this week and even closed on Thursday above 90/$. There is also pressure of selling in the NDF market and from bank dollar hedging demand, despite RBI support. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹89.325/$ and a low of ₹90.462/$. 

1. BRENT CRUDE STEADY AFTER OPEC KEEPS SUPPLIES FLAT 

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
05-Dec-25	63.75	63.26	64.09	63.06
04-Dec-25	63.26	62.72	63.62	62.53
03-Dec-25	62.67	62.56	63.37	62.18
02-Dec-25	62.45	63.33	63.35	62.17
01-Dec-25	63.17	62.69	63.82	62.69
28-Nov-25	63.20	63.36	63.76	63.05

Data Source: Bloomberg 

Brent prices were up marginally from $63.20/bbl to $63.75/bbl for the week. The Ukraine peace proposal has not made much progress. Despite flat OPEC supplies for 2026, the oil supply glut is estimated at nearly 4 million barrels per day (bpd). Brent touched a high of $64.09/bbl and a low of $62.17/bbl this week. 

1. SPOT GOLD STRUGGLES AFTER HIGHER PCE INFLATION 

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz). 

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
05-Dec-25	4,197.13	4,208.69	4,259.55	4,191.95
04-Dec-25	4,208.69	4,206.15	4,219.46	4,174.60
03-Dec-25	4,206.22	4,208.14	4,242.00	4,194.39
02-Dec-25	4,208.14	4,232.72	4,236.28	4,163.01
01-Dec-25	4,232.73	4,223.93	4,264.74	4,205.87
28-Nov-25	4,230.63	4,157.57	4,231.51	4,157.15

Data Source: Bloomberg 

Last week, spot gold had seen a sharp rally on expectations of a Fed rate cut. This week, Spot Gold tapered from $4,230.63/oz to $4,197.13/oz. In India, spot 24K gold was up at to ₹1,30,150 per 10 grams on weak rupee. Gold rally from here will depend on Fed rate action. Gold touched a high of $4,264.74/oz and low of $4,163.01/oz this week.  

1. SPOT SILVER RALLIES TO NEW HIGHS 

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz). 

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
05-Dec-25	58.2951	57.1429	59.3474	56.8772
04-Dec-25	57.1350	58.4868	58.7750	56.4809
03-Dec-25	58.4867	58.4654	59.0050	57.5307
02-Dec-25	58.4750	57.9744	58.6750	56.5848
01-Dec-25	57.9744	56.3523	58.8550	56.1809
28-Nov-25	56.4050	53.4650	56.5509	53.3369

Data Source: Bloomberg 

For the second week in a row, spot silver scaled all-time highs, but closed slightly lower at $58.2951/oz. For the week, silver touched a peak of $59.0050/oz. In India, silver rallied to ₹1,90,000 per KG. Silver is seeing safe haven buying combined with strong industrial demand from electronics, alternate energy, and defence.