Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to November 08, 2025

11 Nov 2025 , 01:36 PM

US MARKET VALUATIONS, THE BIG STORY

The week saw limited data flows except for the continued shutdown in the US and some quarterly results showing pressure in India. US markets came under pressure after Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash stash of $382 Billion; and Michael Burry going short on NVIDIA.

Next week, India and US consumer inflation will be in focus, while India will also put out its WPI inflation. US data flows continue to be restrained due to the shutdown. Next week 5 IPOs in India will raise over ₹15,000 crore as the party primary markets continues.

• US BOND YIELDS TAPER BUT CLOSE ABOVE 4% MARK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
07-Nov-25	4.093	4.089	4.112	4.066
06-Nov-25	4.093	4.155	4.157	4.077
05-Nov-25	4.157	4.087	4.163	4.054
04-Nov-25	4.091	4.109	4.114	4.079
03-Nov-25	4.107	4.101	4.122	4.081
31-Oct-25	4.101	4.099	4.116	4.076

Data Source: Bloomberg

Last week, US bond yields had risen after 4 weeks of tapering. This week, US bond yields tapered from 4.101% from 4.093%. While rate cuts look unlikely in December, the markets are tentative amid limited data flows from the US government agencies. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.163% and a low of 4.054%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) FACES RESISTANCE AT 100

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
07-Nov-25	99.60	99.76	99.87	99.40
06-Nov-25	99.73	100.11	100.11	99.67
05-Nov-25	100.20	100.18	100.36	100.06
04-Nov-25	100.22	99.98	100.25	99.74
03-Nov-25	99.87	99.75	99.99	99.71
31-Oct-25	99.80	99.49	99.84	99.42

Data Source: Bloomberg

This week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed above 100 levels twice; but ended the week at 99.60. The 100 level appears to be the resistance for now. The shutdown uncertainty has increased the preference for safe-haven dollar assets, which is ironic. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 100.36 and a low of 99.40 during the week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS TAPER MILDLY

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
07-Nov-25	6.521	6.518	6.525	6.508
06-Nov-25	6.514	6.533	6.533	6.497
05-Nov-25	6.533	6.533	6.533	6.533
04-Nov-25	6.530	6.534	6.534	6.512
03-Nov-25	6.528	6.527	6.560	6.527
31-Oct-25	6.529	6.574	6.600	6.528

Data Source: RBI

For the week again, the India bond yields were flat, mildly tapering from 6.529% to 6.521%. Bond yields have held strong after RBI rate cut looks unlikely in December. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.560% and a low of 6.512%. Markets are awaiting signals from the December RBI policy, but rate cuts may be off the table for now.

• RUPEE UNDER PRESSURE, DESPITE RBI SUPPORT

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
07-Nov-25	88.665	88.625	88.731	88.590
06-Nov-25	88.673	88.632	88.693	88.459
05-Nov-25	88.557	88.710	88.774	88.545
04-Nov-25	88.732	88.722	88.779	88.332
03-Nov-25	88.724	88.722	88.806	88.697
31-Oct-25	88.769	88.637	88.814	88.566

Data Source: RBI

The USDINR marginally hardened from ₹88.769/$ to ₹88.665/$. RBI intervention was heavy as evidenced from the $5.75 billion depletion in RBI forex reserves in the week to 31-Oct. The NDF market is putting pressure on the rupee, despite the RBI defending at ₹89/$. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹88.332/$ and a low of ₹88.806/$.

• BRENT CRUDE HIT BY OVERSUPPLY AND DEMAND CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
07-Nov-25	63.63	63.63	64.39	63.23
06-Nov-25	63.38	63.58	64.34	62.84
05-Nov-25	63.52	64.18	64.95	63.44
04-Nov-25	64.44	64.73	64.80	63.82
03-Nov-25	64.89	65.12	65.32	64.33
31-Oct-25	65.07	64.64	65.46	64.50

Data Source: Bloomberg

After the recovery in the previous week, Brent Crude was under stress. This week, Brent edged lower from $65.07/bbl to $63.63/bbl. OPEC supplies are an overhang, and the US shutdown is also deepening demand concerns. It is a double whammy for oil prices. Brent touched a high of $65.32/bbl and a low of $62.84/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD CLOSES JUST BELOW $4,000/OZ MARK

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
07-Nov-25	3,999.72	3,977.92	4,027.63	3,974.41
06-Nov-25	3,977.87	3,982.59	4,019.84	3,964.46
05-Nov-25	3,982.62	3,932.06	3,990.60	3,929.61
04-Nov-25	3,932.05	4,001.67	4,006.00	3,928.66
03-Nov-25	4,001.67	4,002.28	4,030.70	3,962.85
02-Nov-25	3,980.65	3,996.02	3,999.05	3,978.00
31-Oct-25	4,002.28	4,024.37	4,046.00	3,972.45

Data Source: Bloomberg

For 5 out last 6 days, spot gold closed below $4,000/oz, a clear sign of the $4,000/oz levels turning from a support to resistance. While the recent correction in gold was much-needed, it is not clear if it is temporary or a secular fall. In India, spot 24K gold corrected to ₹1,22,020 per 10 grams. Gold touched a high of $4,030.70/oz and low of $3,929.61/oz this week.

• SPOT SILVER HOLDS STEADY AROUND $48/OZ LEVELS

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
07-Nov-25	48.3383	48.0268	48.8950	47.9497
06-Nov-25	48.0150	48.0709	48.8111	47.6487
05-Nov-25	48.0710	47.1374	48.3050	46.8924
04-Nov-25	47.1300	48.1128	48.2350	46.8700
03-Nov-25	48.1050	48.6620	49.1450	48.0020
02-Nov-25	48.5585	48.5000	48.7585	48.4890
31-Oct-25	48.6750	48.9290	49.4100	48.3646

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot silver has steadied around $48/oz levels. The advantage is that; apart from a safe haven, silver is in short supply for industrial uses. However, spot silver is -11.1% below its recent peak of $54.40/oz. In India, silver traded higher ₹1,52,500 per KG. Rising demands from electronics, alternate energy, aerospace, and defence is keeping silver prices steady.