Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to November 15, 2025

17 Nov 2025 , 12:47 PM

INDIA INFLATION – A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

With the US data flows still elusive amid shutdown, focus remains on India macro data. CPI inflation for October came in at all-time low of 0.25%. However, this is not great news! It has also raised the spectre of a spending slowdown as consumers postpone buy decisions.

Next week, the India trade data and the India core sector growth will be out. That will give indications of the ground impact on growth. The bigger focus will be on the Q2FY26 GDP that MOSPI will announce towards the end of November. CAD will come in early December.

• US BOND YIELDS TREND HIGHER FOR THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
14-Nov-25	4.148	4.123	4.152	4.065
13-Nov-25	4.111	4.081	4.125	4.071
12-Nov-25	4.067	4.069	4.095	4.056
11-Nov-25	4.069	4.118	4.123	4.065
10-Nov-25	4.110	4.130	4.147	4.096
07-Nov-25	4.093	4.089	4.112	4.066

Data Source: Bloomberg

Last week, US bond yields rose sharply in a sign of confidence with the US shutdown ending and hopes of rate cuts gradually fading. This week, US bond yields moved up from 4.093% from 4.148%. With inflation elevated, further rate cuts are being ruled out in 2025. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.152% and a low of 4.056%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) STILL FACES RESISTANCE AT 100

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
14-Nov-25	99.30	99.25	99.40	98.99
13-Nov-25	99.16	99.52	99.59	98.99
12-Nov-25	99.50	99.46	99.71	99.42
11-Nov-25	99.44	99.66	99.74	99.29
10-Nov-25	99.59	99.63	99.74	99.46
07-Nov-25	99.60	99.76	99.87	99.40

Data Source: Bloomberg

This week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed below 100 levels on all days; closing the week at 99.30. The withdrawal of shutdown happened late in the week and the dollar index could not react to it, but a breach above 100 looks likely now. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.74 and a low of 98.99 this week. DXY closed above 100 last on May 20, 2025.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS INCH UP DURING THE WEEK

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
14-Nov-25	6.527	6.519	6.540	6.519
13-Nov-25	6.511	6.499	6.517	6.490
12-Nov-25	6.483	6.506	6.506	6.476
11-Nov-25	6.499	6.493	6.506	6.481
10-Nov-25	6.490	6.535	6.535	6.490
07-Nov-25	6.521	6.518	6.525	6.508

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged up from 6.521% to 6.527%. RBI has almost ruled out rate cuts for now, and the low inflation also raised a growth scare. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.540% and a low of 6.476%. There are expectations that if growth slows in Q2, government may adopt fiscal boosters, widening fiscal deficit.

• RUPEE UNDER PRESSURE, DESPITE RBI INTERVENTION

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
14-Nov-25	88.689	88.777	88.808	88.636
13-Nov-25	88.817	88.590	88.831	88.582
12-Nov-25	88.590	88.501	88.663	88.499
11-Nov-25	88.467	88.707	88.726	88.421
10-Nov-25	88.707	88.650	88.746	88.623
07-Nov-25	88.665	88.625	88.731	88.590

Data Source: RBI

The USDINR marginally weakened from ₹88.665/$ to ₹88.689/$. That was only possible due to persistent selling of dollars by the RBI at ₹89/$ levels. The NDF (non-deliverable forwards) market is putting pressure on the rupee, as is the hedging demand from banks. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹88.421/$ and a low of ₹88.831/$.

• BRENT CRUDE RISES ON RUSSIA SUPPLY CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
14-Nov-25	64.39	63.36	64.87	63.36
13-Nov-25	63.01	62.56	63.45	62.34
12-Nov-25	62.71	65.15	65.15	62.56
11-Nov-25	65.16	63.94	65.31	63.60
10-Nov-25	64.06	63.80	64.34	63.32
07-Nov-25	63.63	63.63	64.39	63.23

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices closed higher at $64.39/bbl, after a Ukrainian drone strike hit a Russian oil terminal, hitting 2% of its export supply. OPEC supplies are still an overhang, and global oil demand still remains a major concern for oil companies. For now, Russian supply appears to be the swing factor. Brent touched a high of $65.31/bbl and a low of $62.34/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD RACES PAST THE $4,000/OZ MARK

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
14-Nov-25	4,079.58	4,171.47	4,211.68	4,032.32
13-Nov-25	4,171.46	4,198.75	4,245.20	4,145.41
12-Nov-25	4,198.73	4,126.68	4,211.96	4,098.76
11-Nov-25	4,126.68	4,115.91	4,149.20	4,097.09
10-Nov-25	4,115.90	3,999.94	4,116.26	3,997.87
07-Nov-25	3,999.72	3,977.92	4,027.63	3,974.41

Data Source: Bloomberg

This week, spot gold closed above $4,000/oz on all 5 trading days. That may be a signal that $4,000/oz level is turning to be a support. In India, spot 24K gold spiked to ₹1,27,077 per 10 grams. The gold rally was triggered by macro uncertainty and sustained central bank demand. Gold touched a high of $4,245.20/oz and low of $3,997.87/oz this week.

• SPOT SILVER BREAKS OUT ABOVE $50/OZ LEVELS

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
14-Nov-25	50.5595	52.3450	53.5750	50.0634
13-Nov-25	52.3367	53.4195	54.4050	52.0620
12-Nov-25	53.4192	51.2347	53.6950	50.8649
11-Nov-25	51.2347	50.5472	51.2668	50.2667
10-Nov-25	50.5472	48.3350	50.6188	48.3187
07-Nov-25	48.3383	48.0268	48.8950	47.9497

Data Source: Bloomberg

After languishing under $50/oz in last few weeks, spot silver closed above $50/oz levels on all days this week. Spot silver is still below its recent peak of $54.40/oz, but that level was again scaled this week. In India, silver traded higher ₹1,69,000 per KG. Rising demands from electronics, alternate energy, aerospace, and defence is keeping silver prices steady.