Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to November 29, 2025

5 Dec 2025 , 05:02 PM

LOW INFLATION BOOSTS GDP GROWTH IN Q2FY26

India real GDP growth for Q2FY26 came in higher than expected at 8.2%. However, this was largely on the back of low inflation as the nominal GDP grew at just about 8.7% in Q2. Also, the fiscal deficit spiked by 44% in October 2025, raising doubts about 4.4% fiscal target.

The week ahead will see key data points like the RBI Monetary Policy, IIP growth, and the current account deficit for Q2FY26. In addition, the US BEA will also announce the PCE inflation for September, which will form the basis for the Fed rate action later this month.

• US BOND YIELDS EASE DURING THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 6 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
30-Nov-25	4.033	4.027	4.033	4.027
28-Nov-25	4.019	4.008	4.036	3.961
27-Nov-25	4.005	3.998	4.015	3.991
26-Nov-25	3.998	4.004	4.044	3.990
25-Nov-25	4.002	4.031	4.046	3.988
24-Nov-25	4.036	4.059	4.069	4.027
21-Nov-25	4.063	4.092	4.102	4.036

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US bond yields were stable through the week, with a downward bias. For the week, it eased from 4.063% to 4.033%. It even dipped briefly below the 4% mark. While the hopes of a rate cut in December are fading, there are several optimistic quarters. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.069% and a low of 3.961%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) BACK BELOW 100

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
28-Nov-25	99.46	99.57	99.82	99.38
27-Nov-25	99.60	99.50	99.71	99.41
26-Nov-25	99.60	99.84	99.96	99.56
25-Nov-25	99.66	100.21	100.26	99.65
24-Nov-25	100.14	100.20	100.30	100.01
21-Nov-25	100.18	100.16	100.39	99.99

Data Source: Bloomberg

After breaching above the 100 levels in the previous week, Dollar Index again faced pressure on rate cut expectations. The euphoria of the end of US shutdown is now absorbed. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 100.30 and a low of 99.38 this week. The DXY had given a close above 100 in the previous week, for the first time since 20-May 2025.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS SUBDUED IN A RANGE

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
28-Nov-25	6.528	6.513	6.570	6.500
27-Nov-25	6.513	6.492	6.518	6.487
26-Nov-25	6.486	6.496	6.505	6.486
25-Nov-25	6.491	6.519	6.525	6.490
24-Nov-25	6.525	6.566	6.566	6.519
21-Nov-25	6.560	6.536	6.575	6.527

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged marginally lower from 6.560% to 6.528%. A recent poll shows that economists in India are equally divided about a rate cut in December 2025. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.570% and a low of 6.486%. A widening of fiscal deficit is expected based on the October spike.

• RUPEE HARDENS ON RBI SUPPORT

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
28-Nov-25	89.357	89.361	89.516	89.316
27-Nov-25	89.365	89.161	89.409	89.116
26-Nov-25	89.161	89.170	89.288	89.146
25-Nov-25	89.153	89.148	89.274	88.979
24-Nov-25	89.148	89.527	89.538	89.063
21-Nov-25	89.641	88.692	89.734	88.602

Data Source: RBI

The USDINR hardened this week from ₹89.641/$ to ₹89.357/$. The RBI continued to stoutly defend the Indian Rupee at ₹90/$ with heavy dollar selling. There is still pressure of selling in the NDF market and from bank dollar hedging demand. For the week, USDINR touched a high of ₹89.063/$ and a low of ₹89.538/$.

• BRENT CRUDE HARDENS AS UKRAINE PEACE TALKS STALL

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
28-Nov-25	63.20	63.36	63.76	63.05
27-Nov-25	63.34	63.01	63.45	62.75
26-Nov-25	63.13	62.64	63.20	62.11
25-Nov-25	62.48	63.36	63.36	61.60
24-Nov-25	63.37	62.70	63.56	61.94
21-Nov-25	61.94	62.40	62.47	61.26

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices rallied this week from $61.94/bbl to $63.20/bbl, with the Ukraine-Russia peace talks not making much progress. However, OPEC supplies are still an overhang, and global oil demand is tepid, which means oil will remain oversupplied for now. Brent touched a high of $63.76/bbl and a low of $61.60/bbl this week.

• SPOT GOLD DISPLAYS A SHARP RALLY AMID UNCERTAINTY

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
30-Nov-25	4,219.75	4,226.47	4,226.67	4,218.65
28-Nov-25	4,230.63	4,157.57	4,231.51	4,157.15
27-Nov-25	4,157.57	4,164.53	4,169.00	4,142.57
26-Nov-25	4,164.59	4,131.15	4,173.70	4,128.99
25-Nov-25	4,131.15	4,139.66	4,159.45	4,109.72
24-Nov-25	4,139.70	4,066.47	4,140.13	4,040.03
21-Nov-25	4,065.90	4,077.54	4,101.37	4,022.70

Data Source: Bloomberg

Gold saw a sharp rally amid global uncertainty, as spot gold closed above $4,200/oz for the week. It appears; $4,000/oz level is now a strong support. In India, spot 24K gold was up at to ₹1,29,800 per 10 grams. As market volatility and uncertainty return, gold is again in demand. Gold touched a high of $4,231.51/oz and low of $4,040.03/oz this week.

• SPOT SILVER RALLIES TOWARDS NEW HIGHS

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
28-Nov-25	56.4050	53.4650	56.5509	53.3369
27-Nov-25	53.4650	53.3786	53.9250	52.6773
26-Nov-25	53.3788	51.4406	53.4150	51.2845
25-Nov-25	51.4407	51.4081	51.7650	50.6822
24-Nov-25	51.4080	50.0350	51.4350	49.7109
21-Nov-25	50.0365	50.6058	50.8684	48.6281

Data Source: Bloomberg

After 2 weeks of spot silver closing above $50/oz on all days of the week, there was a sharp rally with spot silver closing the week at $56.4050/oz. This is almost a new high and very near to the peak level of the week. In India, silver rallied to ₹1,85,000 per KG. Silver is seeing safe haven buying and industrial demand from electronics, alternate energy, and defence.