Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended August 15, 2025

18 Aug 2025 , 04:52 PM

FOR FPIS; IT WAS A SELLING WEEK ONCE AGAIN

FPIs were net sellers in the previous week to August 15, 2025 to the tune of $(348) Million; after they had net sold $(4.54) Billion in previous 4 weeks. The FPIs began as net buyers on Monday, but the sentiments could not be sustained as they again turned sellers for the rest of the week. Sentiments appear to be cautious ahead of the 50% tariff imposition, especially considering the fact that it is likely to hit textiles, jewellery, and leather products quite hard.

During the week, the dollar index tapered to 97.84 levels, after strong expectations of a rate cut in September. However, the USDINR stayed under pressure at ₹87.51/$, amidst FPI selling and tariff concerns. Brent Crude tapered to $65.85/bbl mark over the OPEC Plus decision to boost oil supplies. The big focus is on the Trump-Putin summit at Alaska, but the real thrust will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium during the coming week.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO AUGUST 15, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(23,554.09)	2,579.23	(20,974.86)	9,266.48	(11,708.38)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,55,430.25)	38,814.73	(1,16,615.52)	34,035.85	(82,579.67)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(17,821.69)	4,497.98	(13,323.71)	3,836.31	(9,487.40)
# – Recent Data is up to August 15, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(9,488) Million. This comprised $(13,324) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $3,836 Million of net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(17,822) Million; offset by IPO buying of $4,498 Million. IPOs are seeing a lot of institutional traction in recent weeks.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to August 15, 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities worth $(348) Million. Here are the key market drivers.

• In a surprisingly positive move, S&P Ratings upgraded India’s sovereign ratings from BBB- to BBB with stable outlook. This was long overdue and could have been better. In a tough macro environment, this will allow India to borrower globally at lower cost.
• CPI inflation for July 2025 came in sharply lower at 1.55% with food inflation at -1.76%. Core inflation also softened by 30 bps to 4.1%. This sharp fall in CPI inflation, combined with a fall in WPI inflation, is likely to make a case for an October rate cut.
• With the US consumer inflation flat at 2.7%, and with two dissent votes in the July FOMC meet, the CME Fedwatch is already building in a 99% probability of a 25 bps bps rate cut in September. It is also estimating 3 rate cuts by December 2025.
• Merchandise trade deficit for July 2025 widened to an 8-month high of $27.35 Billion. This was due to a surge in the imports of crude oil, silver, and fertilizers. As a result, the overall deficit for the month crept into double digits, putting pressure on the CAD.
• Action in the IPO market is heating up. After the success of the big IPOs like NSDL and JSW Cement, there are 2 more mega filings. InCred has filed for its ₹5,500 crore IPO, while AI-based Fractal Analytics has also filed with SEBI for its ₹4,900 crore IPO.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
21-Jul-25	781.85	781.85	90.70	90.70
22-Jul-25	-1,084.36	-302.51	-125.76	-35.06
23-Jul-25	4,618.07	4,315.56	535.38	500.32
24-Jul-25	-3,299.28	1,016.28	-382.01	118.31
25-Jul-25	-1,995.50	-979.22	-231.15	-112.84
28-Jul-25	-1,419.44	-2,398.66	-164.05	-276.89
29-Jul-25	-5,963.60	-8,362.26	-689.03	-965.92
30-Jul-25	-3,692.35	-12,054.61	-425.18	-1,391.10
31-Jul-25	-162.10	-12,216.71	-18.58	-1,409.68
01-Aug-25	-6,153.28	-18,369.99	-702.80	-2,112.48
04-Aug-25	-1,445.44	-19,815.43	-165.47	-2,277.95
05-Aug-25	-1,967.77	-21,783.20	-224.88	-2,502.83
06-Aug-25	1,561.31	-20,221.89	177.84	-2,324.99
07-Aug-25	-4,398.51	-24,620.40	-501.54	-2,826.53
08-Aug-25	-5,519.81	-30,140.21	-629.44	-3,455.97
11-Aug-25	2,826.16	-27,314.05	322.55	-3,133.42
12-Aug-25	-964.60	-28,278.65	-110.13	-3,243.55
13-Aug-25	-2,648.54	-30,927.19	-302.10	-3,545.65
14-Aug-25	-2,264.38	-33,191.57	-258.21	-3,803.86
15-Aug-25	0.00	-33,191.57	0.00	-3,803.86

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(1,344) Million, $(2,000) Million, $(113) Million, $(1,090) Million, net inflows of $614 Million, $497 Million, and $1,522 Million. The week to August 15, 2025, saw net FPI selling of $(348) Million in equities.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹(33,192) Crore or $(3,804) Million. Debt markets continue to see inflows in August 2025.

In the coming week, FPI flows will react to the RBI MPC minutes, FOMC July Minutes, as well as the key hints coming from the Jackson Hole Symposium.  It could be a critical week for crystallizing the future colour and direction of FPI flows.