Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended September 26, 2025

29 Sep 2025 , 05:11 AM

TARIFF TENSIONS AND TRUMP DIPLOMACY WEIGH ON MARKETS

The week to September 26, 2025 saw net FPI outflows of $(1,084) Million after 2 weeks of net inflows. Two things weighed on markets this week. Firstly, little progress was made on the tariff front, and now Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on pharma imports. Secondly, US diplomacy, in the last few months, has patently weighed in favour of Pakistan. With Russia, China and India getting closer, the US needs Pakistan as an Asian operating zone.

For the week, dollar index recovered after dipping below 97. Powell remained cautious on rate cuts, helping the dollar index (DXY). The USDINR touched a low of ₹88.81/$ and closed the week at ₹88.67/$. Brent Crude rallied to $70.13/bbl at close, after indications of Russia cutting down on its fuel exports. This was due to extensive damage to its oil facilities by persistent drone attacks by Ukraine. The pall of uncertainty in global market stays for now.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO SEPTEMBER 26, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(20,277.44)	2,726.79	(17,550.65)	11,754.03	5,796.62
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,91,217.45)	43,032.71	(1,48,184.74)	51,011.83	(97,172.91)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(21,888.55)	4,977.45	(16,911.10)	5,770.06	(11,141.04)
# – Recent Data is up to September 26, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Overall FPI flows for 2025 are still negative at $(11,141) Million. This comprised of $(16,911) Million net selling in equities, offset by $5,770 Million net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of $(21,889) Million; offset by IPO buying of $4,978 Million. While valuations and muted earnings were a key factor, the real concern for most FPIs is the rupee weakness and its possible impact on their annual performance.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to September 26, 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities worth $(1,084) Million. Here are key market drivers.

• India core sector growth for August 2025 came in sharply higher at 6.27%. In addition, the July core sector growth figure also got upgraded by 172 basis points. Clearly, the thrust on capex in recent months has triggered a revival in core sector growth.
• After the general 50% tariffs on exports, the US has decided to specifically attack pharma exports to the US by imposing 100% tariffs on formulations. Since, Indian exports to the US are mostly generics, the impact would be limited for India.
• In US data flows, the Q2 GDP final estimate got revised upwards to 3.8%, while the PCE inflation also inched up 10 bps to 2.7%. Core inflation continues to be a challenge for the US, while the GDP bounce underlines that the Q1 contraction was just a glitch.
• In two diverse speeches; Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman gave contrary signals on rates. Powell hinted that Fed may be done with rate cuts for now, while Bowman called for aggressive rate cuts to arrest a possible unemployment problem in the US.
• Government of India to cut its total borrowings by ₹10,000 crore for fiscal year FY26. The centre has pegged its total borrowing requirement at ₹6.77 Trillion in the second half of FY26. That may be indicative of fiscal deficit staying under 4.4% of GDP.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
01-Sep-25	-8,982.89	-8,982.89	-1,022.51	-1,022.51
02-Sep-25	-1,652.11	-10,635.00	-187.19	-1,209.70
03-Sep-25	-937.05	-11,572.05	-106.45	-1,316.15
04-Sep-25	-684.88	-12,256.93	-77.74	-1,393.89
05-Sep-25	0.00	-12,256.93	0.00	-1,393.89
08-Sep-25	0.00	-12,256.93	0.00	-1,393.89
09-Sep-25	-176.03	-12,432.96	-19.93	-1,413.82
10-Sep-25	570.79	-11,862.17	64.76	-1,349.06
11-Sep-25	4,494.14	-7,368.03	509.97	-839.09
12-Sep-25	-3,413.59	-10,781.62	-386.75	-1,225.84
15-Sep-25	1,022.64	-9,758.98	115.84	-1,110.00
16-Sep-25	-336.45	-10,095.43	-38.11	-1,148.11
17-Sep-25	1,645.65	-8,449.78	186.90	-961.21
18-Sep-25	-280.13	-8,729.91	-31.92	-993.13
19-Sep-25	785.11	-7,944.80	89.70	-903.43
22-Sep-25	1,128.39	-6,816.41	127.78	-775.65
23-Sep-25	-1,971.70	-8,788.11	-223.69	-999.34
24-Sep-25	-2,794.09	-11,582.20	-314.85	-1,314.19
25-Sep-25	-1,867.85	-13,450.05	-210.44	-1,524.63
26-Sep-25	-4,100.60	-17,550.65	-462.46	-1,987.09

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $322 Million, $168 Million; net outflows of $(1,394) Million, $(1,478) Million, $(122) Million, $ (348) Million, and $(1,344) Million. The week to September 26, 2025, saw FPI net welling of $(1,084) Million in equities.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (17,551) Crore or $(1,987) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 6 out of 9 months; while they were net buyers in debt in 7 out of 9 months.

Next week, FPI flows will principally react to the Indo-US trade talks and tariffs; but focus will also be on India IIP data and fiscal deficit. US jobs data also comes up this week, which will be a key input for US rate action. FPIs would be glued into data points.