TRAI February 2023 subscriber data: Jio leads; Bharti resilient despite tariff hikes

12 May 2023 , 10:42 AM

As per TRAI’s February 2023 subscriber data: 1) Jio and Bharti saw similar reported mobile subscriber additions, though Jio fared better on VLR (active) subscriber additions. 2) Bharti’s subscriber additions (reported and active) are healthy despite extending the entry-level pack price increase from 2 to 17 circles in late January. 3) Bharti’s 4G cumulative adds of ~5 million in January and February are tracking above IIFL’s estimate of 5.5 million for Q4. 4) Vi continued to lose subscribers on fixed broadband subscriber additions, Bharti maintained its recent run-rate but Jio saw a slowdown for the second consecutive month. Based on Bharti’s February data and Jio’s Q4 performance (mobile revenue beat), there could be a slight positive surprise on Bharti India mobile’s 0.6% QoQ revenue growth estimate.

Jio led on reported subscriber additions

On a reported basis, Jio added 1.01 million mobile subscribers in February versus 1.65 million in January. Bharti’s 0.98 million adds in February also indicated a MoM moderation from 1.28 million. Vi’s sub loss widened from 1.36 million to 2 million. Fewer days in February and sluggish consumption environment seemed to have taken a toll at the industry level.

Bharti’s subscriber adds remain positive, despite increasing price of its entry-level pack

Bharti had taken ~55% effective price increase in its entry-level packs in mid-November 2022 in two circles – Haryana and Orissa. It extended this to 17 circles in late January (and eventually made it pan-India in a staggered manner through March). TRAI sub data shows that Bharti did not see a pronounced sub decline in any of these circles, suggesting that it managed to keep churn in check.

Jio fared better on VLR

On active subscribers, Jio added 3.16 million in February, similar to the average monthly rate in past 2 months. Bharti added 0.79 million in February, below its recent monthly average. Vi’s 0.78 million loss was higher than past two months’, but was still an improvement from its 6-month average. As of end-February, Jio/Bharti/Vi had active subscriber base of 398 million/367 million/208 million.

Bharti’s mobile broadband (4G) subscribers in January and February are trending above IIFL’s Q4 estimates

On mobile broadband subscribers, Bharti saw 2.2 million adds in February, much better than Jio’s 1.01 million adds. On the other hand, Vi lost 1.15 million — first monthly loss after 8 months. Bharti’s 5 million mobile broadband subscribers in January + February are tracking ahead of IIFL’s estimates of 5.5 million adds for Q4. Bharti’s performance is commendable, considering muted smartphone shipments in the March quarter due to rising handset prices.

Jio’s new plan can accelerate fixed broadband adds; Bharti steady

On fixed broadband subscribers, Jio’s 0.18 million adds in February were similar to January but well-below 0.27 million monthly average in the preceding 6 months. Bharti’s 0.13 million adds were steady. BSNL reported 0.64 million loss wiping out the 0.33 million additions in the preceding 6 months. Jio/Bharti/BSNL had 8.02 million/5.98 million/3.54 million fixed BB sub base, as of end-February. Jio’s FTTH plan at Rs. 198/month (launched in March) could lower the entry barrier to the FTTH market and accelerate fixed broadband subscriber additions.