Story of 6 key macro signals for the week to October 11, 2025

13 Oct 2025 , 11:11 AM

FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS INDIA-CENTRIC DATA POINTS

With the US shutdown continuing and most data announcements in the US put off, the only thing markets are interested in is the length of the US shutdown.  Fed minutes underlined the need to cut rates further, but Powell and Bowman have sounded a note of caution.

For the coming week, the data points in focus will be India centric. There is the India retail and wholesale inflation coming, as well as the trade deficit data. But markets will really watch out for the RBI MPC minutes for hints of any likely rate cut in December 2025.

• US BOND YIELDS EDGE LOWER

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
10-Oct-25	4.051	4.136	4.140	4.032
09-Oct-25	4.148	4.115	4.152	4.108
08-Oct-25	4.131	4.133	4.136	4.096
07-Oct-25	4.127	4.160	4.177	4.113
06-Oct-25	4.162	4.146	4.168	4.133
03-Oct-25	4.119	4.088	4.125	4.079

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the second week in a row, the US bond yields tapered to 4.051% levels. The minutes of the FOMC and the CME Fedwatch clearly appear to point towards two more rate cuts in the year 2025; and that is apparently reflected in the US bond yield movement. Last week, US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.177% and a low of 4.032%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) BOUNCES AMID VOLATILITY

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
10-Oct-25	98.98	99.39	99.43	98.81
09-Oct-25	99.54	98.84	99.56	98.70
08-Oct-25	98.92	98.61	99.06	98.59
07-Oct-25	98.58	98.09	98.66	98.09
06-Oct-25	98.11	97.96	98.50	97.96
03-Oct-25	97.72	97.85	97.95	97.60

Data Source: Bloomberg

After a fairly long gap, the US dollar index bounced decisively above the 98 mark to close the week at 98.98 levels. The uncertainty caused by the US shutdown is expected to drive portfolio flows towards dollar assets. The 100-level still remains quite elusive. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.43 and a low of 97.96 during the week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK BOND YIELDS HARDEN

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
10-Oct-25	6.531	6.523	6.535	6.515
09-Oct-25	6.521	6.503	6.527	6.503
08-Oct-25	6.504	6.504	6.507	6.494
07-Oct-25	6.510	6.520	6.521	6.506
06-Oct-25	6.519	6.512	6.522	6.495
03-Oct-25	6.514	6.519	6.523	6.505

Data Source: RBI

For the fourth week in a row, bond yields in India hardened to 6.531% levels. While markets are nervous ahead of RBI minutes, December rate cut does look unlikely. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.535% and a low of 6.494%. With lower borrowings this year and fiscal deficit in control, bond yields are likely to be capped.

• RBI INTERVENTION ABSORBS RUPEE PRESSURE

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
10-Oct-25	88.757	88.817	88.826	88.494
09-Oct-25	88.866	88.778	88.877	88.694
08-Oct-25	88.760	88.759	88.824	88.725
07-Oct-25	88.739	88.721	88.785	88.691
06-Oct-25	88.721	88.763	88.839	88.695
03-Oct-25	88.735	88.749	88.816	88.664

Data Source: RBI

USDINR remained in a narrow range this week, due to RBI intervention at ₹89/$, which stemmed any sharp fall in the rupee. Skipping the rate cut in October helped the rupee, as have crude prices falling to $62.73/bbl. However, hedging pressures continue from banks. For the week, the USDINR touched a high of ₹88.494/$ and a low of ͅ₹88.877/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS AGAIN AHEAD OF OPEC MEET

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
10-Oct-25	62.73	65.27	65.36	62.00
09-Oct-25	65.22	65.82	66.58	64.96
08-Oct-25	66.25	65.80	66.54	65.76
07-Oct-25	65.45	65.48	65.84	64.53
06-Oct-25	65.47	64.90	65.77	64.76
03-Oct-25	64.53	64.38	65.02	64.20

Data Source: Bloomberg

After falling from $70.13/bbl to $64.53/bbl in the previous week; Brent Crude fell further to $62.73/bbl this week. The fall was largely on concerns over supply boost by OPEC. Russian curbs on oil exports are less of an issue now. For now, OPEC additional supplies are driving prices. Brent Crude touched a high of $66.58/bbl and a low of $62.00/bbl for the week.

• SPOT GOLD GETS PAST MOUNT 4000

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
10-Oct-25	4,018.30	3,977.58	4,022.96	3,946.80
09-Oct-25	3,976.29	4,042.69	4,058.09	3,944.80
08-Oct-25	4,038.90	3,983.82	4,059.34	3,982.86
07-Oct-25	3,983.82	3,962.48	3,991.18	3,940.75
06-Oct-25	3,961.09	3,888.45	3,970.24	3,883.93
05-Oct-25	3,909.57	3,889.33	3,920.32	3,884.49
03-Oct-25	3,886.83	3,857.92	3,891.85	3,838.05

Data Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold spiked from $3,886.83/oz to $4,018.30/oz this week, as the US shutdown gave another reason for safe-haven rush. In India, spot 24K gold crossed ₹1,25,000 per 10 grams. Gold touched a weekly high of $4,059.34/oz and low of $3,883.93/oz. Gold could get a further fillip with Goldman Sachs raising its spot gold price target for 2026 to $4,900/oz.