Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended May 16, 2025

19 May 2025 , 10:05 AM

FPIS STAY NET BUYERS, ALBEIT MELLOWED

For the fifth week in a row, FPIs were net buyers in equities. If you add the modest current week FPI infusion of $521 Million into equities; total infusion is $6.40 Billion in last 5 weeks. Monday, being a bank holiday, did not have FPI reporting of flows. The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is a sentiment booster, but market players remain cautious that the situation could flare up any time; although VIX was down to 16.55.

During the week, the Indian rupee saw pressure at ₹85.60/$, as dollar index (DXY) hardened to 100.98 levels. The price of Brent Crude also bounced in the week to $65.40/bbl. The bounce in oil prices and the bounce in the dollar index this week were triggered by the signing of the US-China trade deal. This put pressure on the Indian rupee. For now, the focus is on whether RBI will effect its third rate cut in June 2025.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO MAY 16, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore) #	17,669.11	950.67	18,619.78	(7,622.91)	10,996.87
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,08,768.32)	15,037.51	(93,730.81)	16,007.45	(77,723.36)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(12,450.09)	1,737.59	(10,712.50)	1,765.20	(8,947.30)
# – Recent Data is up to May 16, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Outflows in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(8,947) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although the pressure is now coming from debt selling. This comprised of $(10,713) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $1,765 Million of net buying in debt. The week reflected the QIB inflows in the Ather Energy IPO. FPIs were net sellers in debt worth ₹(24,413) Crore in April 2025 as narrowing of Indo-US yield spreads triggered FPI outflows. In May 2025, FPIs continued to be net sellers in debt to the tune of ₹(7,623) Crore.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to May 16, 2025, FPIs were net buyers to the tune  of $521 Million. Here is the week that was.

• The ceasefire has given some respite to the markets, and the impact was seen in the massive rally in the Nifty and Sensex. India has demonstrated its firepower, and now it is about economic diplomacy and how well India leverages the situation for key FTAs.
• India saw CPI inflation taper to 3.16% and WPI inflation also taper to 0.85% for April 2025. Both were driven down by a sharp fall in food prices. This creates the perfect situation for the RBI to take up the third rate cut of 25 bps in the June policy.
• US consumer inflation for April also tapered to 2.3%, and it looks like the steep Chinese tariffs have had limited impact. However, the CME Fedwatch does not expect any rate cut prior to September 2025, despite persistent pressure from President Trump.
• April 2025 merchandise trade deficit widened to $(26.42) Billion. With services surplus at 67% of the goods deficit, the overall deficit for April 2025 stood at $(8.65) Billion. The month of April saw a spike in crude oil imports and electronics goods imports.
• Coromandel International and Nykaa to be included in the MSCI India Index. This inclusion is likely to trigger inflows of $252 million into Coromandel and $199 Million into Nykaa, by the passive funds that run ETFs linked to the MSCI India Index.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
21-Apr-25	4,317.31	4,317.31	504.54	504.54
22-Apr-25	1,749.56	6,066.87	205.44	709.98
23-Apr-25	1,965.18	8,032.05	230.92	940.90
24-Apr-25	3,967.25	11,999.30	464.35	1,405.25
25-Apr-25	5,425.58	17,424.88	634.50	2,039.75
28-Apr-25	5,040.37	22,465.25	588.98	2,628.73
29-Apr-25	2,509.65	24,974.90	294.57	2,923.30
30-Apr-25	2,351.23	27,326.13	275.97	3,199.27
01-May-25	0.00	27,326.13	0.00	3,199.27
02-May-25	173.39	27,499.52	20.39	3,219.66
05-May-25	2,806.51	30,306.03	334.68	3,554.34
06-May-25	1,796.13	32,102.16	213.23	3,767.57
07-May-25	4,011.45	36,113.61	474.48	4,242.05
08-May-25	2,951.95	39,065.56	349.05	4,591.10
09-May-25	2,427.20	41,492.76	286.01	4,877.11
12-May-25	0.00	41,492.76	0.00	4,877.11
13-May-25	-2,388.23	39,104.53	-278.85	4,598.26
14-May-25	164.30	39,268.83	19.35	4,617.61
15-May-25	930.55	40,199.38	109.09	4,726.70
16-May-25	5,746.53	45,945.91	671.42	5,398.12

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $1,658 Million, $1,180 Million, $2,040 Million, $990 Million; net outflows of $(2,470) Million, $(1,210) Million; and net inflows of $3,231 Million. The week to May 16, 2025, saw FPIs net buying equities to the tune of $521 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI inflows into equities were to the tune ₹45,946 Crore or $5,398 Million; with flows positive, despite the geopolitical risks.

In key data points ahead, focus will be on core inflation and IIP for April to be announced in the next two weeks. The last day of May 2025 will see FY25 GDP growth and early June will see next monetary policy. The big story remains the geopolitical risk on Indo-Pak border.