iifl-logo-icon 1

Invest wise with Expert advice

By continuing, I accept the T&C and agree to receive communication on Whatsapp

  • Open Demat with exclusive Advice & Services
  • Get a dedicated Relationship Manager to help you grow your wealth
  • Exclusive advisory on 20+ trading & wealth-based investment options
  • One tap Investments, Automated trading & much more
  • Minimum 1 lakh margin required
sidebar image

Auto: 2W, PV strong but CV, Tractors stay weak

20 Mar 2024 , 11:58 PM

Auto industry saw a mixed performance in Feb 2024. Consumer segments (2W, PV) were strong, but CV and Tractors were weak. PV industry grew 12% YoY, as destocking in Nov/Dec created room for higher dispatches (wholesales > retails). 2W industry volumes grew ~35% YoY; the growth rate is higher than retail growth of 12%, as there was de-stocking in the base (Feb 2023). MHCV industry volumes declined 4% YoY, with SAAR coming in weak at 360k vs FY24 volume of 375k. This also casts doubts on growth in FY25. LCV segment declined 2% YoY; the segment has been weak since the beginning of 2023. Tractors were down ~18% YoY, due to weak demand in the festive period and high dealer inventory. Overall, analysts of IIFL Securities see downside risk to volume estimates in CV and tractors, and slight upside risk in 2Ws. 

MHCV and LCV decline YoY: MHCV industry declined 4% YoY in Feb; YoY growth has been weak since Nov 2023. MHCV SAAR stood at ~360k in Feb vs FY24 absolute volumes at 375k. Analysts of IIFL Securities recently cut their FY24 MHCV growth estimate from 10% to 6%; this may see further cut. Since current SAAR is lower than FY24 volumes, it casts doubts on growth in FY25. MHCV mkt-share is largely stable, with Ashok at ~31% and Tata at ~47%. LCV industry volumes declined 2% YoY. On YTD basis, LCV industry is down 2% YoY, worse than analysts of IIFL Securities forecast of 0%.

PV industry strong after destocking in Nov/Dec: PV industry grew 12% YoY in Feb’24. The higher-than-normal dealer inventory at the end of the festive season was cleaned up in Nov/Dec; creating room for higher dispatches in Jan/Feb. Maruti’s Feb’24 mkt-share was slightly better MoM, at 43%. Tata’s share is range-bound at ~13.5%. M&M’s SUV volumes sustained at 42k; although Feb retail registrations were lower. 

Tractors down ~18% YoY in Feb: Tractors declined ~18% YoY in Feb’24. The deficient monsoon has led to moderation in end-demand. Analysts of IIFL Securities recently cut FY24 Tractor industry forecast to -5%; further downside exists. 

Domestic 2Ws up ~35% YoY; 2W exports see sharp recovery for TVS: 

2W industry grew ~35% YoY. Analysts of IIFL Securities estimate volume growth at retail level to be about 12%. However, an easy base (due to destocking last year) led to YoY growth in wholesales being much higher than retail growth. Among 2W players, growth was strong for Hero, Bajaj and TVS. Royal Enfield (RE) continued to stand out with weak growth of 5% YoY in domestic volumes. Coming to 2W exports, Bajaj saw a moderate YoY growth of 8%. TVS saw a sharp jump in 2W exports (+117%). TVS’ 2W exports were weak in Jan; Feb has over-compensated (+60% MoM). Analysts of IIFL Securities need to see if such high levels sustain.

Related Tags

  • Auto
sidebar mobile


Read More
Knowledge Centerplus

Logo IIFL Customer Care Number
1860-267-3000 / 7039-050-000

Logo IIFL Securities Support WhatsApp Number
+91 9892691696

Download The App Now

Knowledge Centerplus

Follow us on


2024, IIFL Securities Ltd. All Rights Reserved

  • Prevent Unauthorized Transactions in your demat / trading account Update your Mobile Number/ email Id with your stock broker / Depository Participant. Receive information of your transactions directly from Exchanges on your mobile / email at the end of day and alerts on your registered mobile for all debits and other important transactions in your demat account directly from NSDL/ CDSL on the same day." - Issued in the interest of investors.
  • KYC is one time exercise while dealing in securities markets - once KYC is done through a SEBI registered intermediary (broker, DP, Mutual Fund etc.), you need not undergo the same process again when you approach another intermediary.
  • No need to issue cheques by investors while subscribing to IPO. Just write the bank account number and sign in the application form to authorise your bank to make payment in case of allotment. No worries for refund as the money remains in investor's account."

www.indiainfoline.com is part of the IIFL Group, a leading financial services player and a diversified NBFC. The site provides comprehensive and real time information on Indian corporates, sectors, financial markets and economy. On the site we feature industry and political leaders, entrepreneurs, and trend setters. The research, personal finance and market tutorial sections are widely followed by students, academia, corporates and investors among others.

  • 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.
  • On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to Rs. 50,000.
  • Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28% of net trading losses as transaction costs.
  • Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.
Copyright © IIFL Securities Ltd. All rights Reserved.

Stock Broker SEBI Regn. No: INZ000164132, PMS SEBI Regn. No: INP000002213,IA SEBI Regn. No: INA000000623, SEBI RA Regn. No: INH000000248

We are ISO 27001:2013 Certified.

This Certificate Demonstrates That IIFL As An Organization Has Defined And Put In Place Best-Practice Information Security Processes.


Get better recommendations & make better investments

Invest wise with Expert advice

By continuing, I accept the T&C and agree to receive communication on Whatsapp