Cairn India (Q4 FY14)

Cairn India recorded net sales of Rs50.5bn for Q4 FY14 which was in line with our estimates.

Apr 28, 2014 11:04 IST India Infoline News Service

CMP Rs352, Target Rs350, Downside 0.6%

  • Net sales at Rs50.5bn grew 15.7% yoy and were tad better than our expectations. Net working interest production for Q4 FY14 was at 142,796boepd, an increase of 12.8% yoy and 1.4% qoq

  • Realization for Rajasthan crude was at 11.5% discount to Brent

  • PAT was better than expectations owing to higher than estimated other income which was on account of capital gains realizations of investments

  • Company has declared a final dividend of Rs6.5

  • Guidance of flat production for FY15 and 7-10% CAGR for the next three years, this is below our expectations

  • Mangala production will be on a natural decline during FY15, while Bhagyam is finding it difficult to reach its stated peak production

  • Downgrade to Market Performer with a revised price target of Rs350

Result table
(Rs m) Q4 FY14 Q4 FY13 % yoy Q3 FY14 % qoq
Net sales 50,489 43,634 15.7 50,000 1.0
Inc/(dec) in stock 56 32 77.3 23 143.3
Personnel costs (474) (196) 142.2 (1,853) (74.4)
Operating expense (3,448) (2,999) 15.0 (2,928) 17.8
Cess (6,835) (6,874) (0.6) (7,735) (11.6)
Other expense (1,349) (1,016) 32.8 (585) 130.6
Operating profit 38,439 32,582 18.0 36,922 4.1
OPM (%) 76.1 74.7 146 bps 73.8 229 bps
Depreciation (6,367) (4,747) 34.1 (5,948) 7.0
Exploration w/off (1,608) (3,657) (56.0) (1,003) 60.3
Interest (109) (152) (28.3) (91) 19.2
Other income 4,070 2,219 83.4 1,403 190.0
Forex fluctuation (2,431) (28) 8,675.5 (1,290) 88.4
PBT 31,995 26,218 22.0 29,992 6.7
Tax (1,641) (582) 182.0 (1,152) 42.4
Effective tax rate (%) 5.1 2.2 3.8
Adjusted PAT 30,354 25,636 18.4 28,840 5.2
Adj. PAT margin (%) 60.1 58.8 137 bps 57.7 244 bps
Ann. EPS (Rs) 63.6 53.7 18.6 60.4 5.4
Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Sequential production uptick from Rajasthan asset

Cairn India recorded net sales of Rs50.5bn for Q4 FY14 which was in line with our estimates. The crude realizations for Rajasthan field were at a discount of 11.5% to Brent price in Q4 FY14 which was at the middle of the guided range. On a yoy basis the topline grew by 15.7% mainly on back of 1) higher production and 2) Steep depreciation in rupee against US$. During the quarter, working interest production volumes increased to 142,796boepd v/s 126,623boepd in Q4 FY13 and 140,830boepd in Q3 FY14. While Rajasthan and Cambay fields witnessed yoy improvement in volumes, Ravva showed yoy fall in production. Sequentially, while Rajasthan saw marginal improvement, Cambay and Ravva saw declines. Rajasthan gross average production for the quarter was at 190,881boepd (+2.4% qoq). Management apprised that exit rate of production at Rajasthan field was 200,000boepd. 




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