Market outlook for the week (15-Dec to 19-Dec)

17 Dec 2025 , 04:46 PM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO DECEMBER 12, 2025 

The week to December 12, 2025, saw Nifty and Sensex close absolutely flat, thanks to the rally witnessed in the markets on Thursday and Friday. During the week, FPIs sold equities worth $(681) Million. Rupee fell to as low as ₹90.61/$, as the rupee came under intense pressure. 

Sectoral  Index	Weekly  Returns	Index  (12-Dec)	Index  (05-Dec)
Nifty Metals	1.90%	10,536.45	10,340.35
Nifty Consumer Durables	0.42%	36,830.45	36,674.75
Nifty Oil & Gas	0.18%	11,927.00	11,905.60
Nifty Infrastructure	0.11%	9,551.55	9,540.65
Nifty Chemicals	0.11%	28,547.70	28,515.60
Nifty MNC	-0.11%	30,163.50	30,196.30
Nifty Private Banks	-0.21%	28,802.35	28,862.30
Nifty India Digital	-0.39%	9,599.05	9,637.10
Nifty Automobiles	-0.42%	27,820.85	27,939.10
Nifty Mobility	-0.48%	22,995.90	23,105.85
Nifty Capital Markets	-0.51%	4,658.30	4,682.15
Nifty Banks	-0.65%	59,389.95	59,777.20
Nifty Healthcare	-0.69%	14,753.85	14,856.30
Nifty Realty	-0.74%	886.55	893.15
Nifty Non-Banks	-0.88%	31,897.30	32,179.25
Nifty IT	-1.11%	38,274.75	38,703.65
Nifty FMCG	-1.29%	54,490.80	55,202.85
Nifty CPSE	-1.45%	6,232.60	6,324.20
Nifty PSU Banks	-1.60%	8,247.80	8,381.75
Nifty India Defence	-2.98%	7,567.85	7,800.30

Data Source: NSE 

For the week, 5 sectors gave positive returns, while 15 gave negative returns. Metals, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas recorded gains. On the downside; Defence, PSU Banks, and FMCG were under stress. Only 1 sector gained over 1%; but 5 sectors lost over 1%. 

Metal stocks were largely up on the back of expectations of revival in Chinese demand, while it was more of a dead-cat bounce for consumer durables and oil. On the downside, Defence continues to face pressure after the Tejas crash, while PSU banks are giving up gains with little progress on PSU bank consolidation. FMCG still has volume questions. 

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at -0.54%. The top 5 sectors delivered 0.55% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of 0.11%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -1.19%, showing substantial pressure on the downside. Here is a quick recap of the week gone by. 

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY 

The Fed rate cut decision will reduce the pressure on the RBI on monetary policy divergence. Also, a rate cut by the Fed would theoretically soften the dollar index and reduce the pressure on the USD/INR. Mutual fund flows continue to be robust across equity and hybrids, while SIP flows for the month were robust at ₹29,449 Crore. 

On the downside, the CPI inflation was higher than October at 0.71%, although it is still under the 1% mark. The rupee cracked sharply after the RBI cut rates by 25 bps and even the Fed rate cut had little impact. The week saw pressure building up on the rupee with a mix of NDF market selling and hedging demand from banks. 

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO DECEMBER 19, 2025 

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets this week. 

• The coming week will see the all-important trade deficit for November being announced. In October, the merchandise trade deficit had scaled a high of $41.65 Billion, putting intense pressure on the current account deficit for FY26. 

• The RBI will publish the minutes of the MPC meet on coming Friday. The markets will read the minutes to understand if there is scope for another rate cut, especially with the intense pressure already visible on the Indian rupee.

• There are some important data points for the US economy this week. The US CPI Inflation for November, PCE inflation for October, and the unemployment number for November will be announced. That will set the tone for the next Fed rate decision.

• There is just one IPO opening in the coming of LSH International and the fund raising from the IPO will be under ₹800 crore. Of greater interest will be the final response to the IPO of ICICI Pru AMC, which has already seen substantial institutional interest.

• Key global data points. Building Permits, Core Retail Sales, Retail Inventories, Business Inventories, API Crude Stocks, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet (US). IIP, CPI, ECB Monetary Policy (EU); PMI, Trade Surplus (Japan); Unemployment, CPI, BOE Inflation Letter (UK); and IIP, Fixed Assets Index (China). 

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to December 19, 2025. 

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS 

VIX fell from 10.32 levels to 10.11 levels, as global macros stabilized and the RBI rate cut was neutralized by the Fed rate cut. The fear factor appears to be waning. 

• Nifty closed the week at 26,047 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,971 and major support at 25,852. Immediate resistance is at 26,090 and later at 26,209. Nifty remains a Long Trade, unless it breaks below 25,794 with volumes, which provides an opportunity to short trades. 

• Sensex closed the week at 85,268 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 85,043 and major support at 84,679. Immediate resistance is at 85,407 and later at 85,771. Sensex remains a Long Trade, till it breaks below 84,483 with volumes, offering window for short traders to trade.  

The week will be on the US inflation data, US jobs, India WPI inflation, India trade, and the minutes of the RBI MPC meet. Rupee will remain the data fulcrum!