Mid-caps show some genuine alpha signals in April 2025

1 May 2025 , 10:37 PM

DEFENCE AND FINANCIALS TRIGGER MID-CAP BOUNCE

The returns on mid-caps in April 2025 were nowhere as fancy as they were in March 2025. However, at 4.75%, the mid-cap index did better than the Nifty and the small cap index. There were two stories that triggered the sustained bounce in April 2025. Firstly, it was defence stocks. Not only has the government announced a big defence outlay, but worsening tensions with Pakistan and the recent multi-billion dollar Rafale order have also turned the debate in favour of mid-cap defence stocks. There was also value buying in specific mid-cap financials like AU Bank, IDFC First Bank, and Bandhan Bank as domestic plays once again took centre stage in April. Amidst the tariff uncertainty, domestic plays look like the safe bet for the markets.

TRACKING MID-CAP MOMENTUM RETURNS IN APRIL 2025

In terms of 1-month returns, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 gave 4.75%. Out of the 94 eligible stocks in the index, 69 stocks gave positive returns, while 25 stocks gave negative returns. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Mth Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
AUBANK	676.00	26.94%	7.10%	755.40	478.35	41.32%	10.51%
DIXON	16,400.00	24.83%	97.22%	19,148.90	7,932.55	106.74%	14.36%
INDUSTOWER	406.50	22.11%	15.05%	460.35	292.00	39.21%	11.70%
MRF	1,34,200.00	19.37%	1.12%	1,43,849.90	1,02,124.05	31.41%	6.71%
BDL	1,503.00	19.37%	-22.65%	1,794.70	890.00	68.88%	16.25%
IDFCFIRSTB	64.91	18.07%	-21.01%	84.50	52.46	23.73%	23.18%
SOLARINDS	13,150.00	17.15%	46.88%	13,664.00	7,888.25	66.70%	3.76%
PRESTIGE	1,366.10	16.10%	-0.37%	2,074.80	1,048.05	30.35%	34.16%
BSE	6,339.50	16.04%	127.91%	6,808.00	2,115.00	199.74%	6.88%
MAZDOCK	3,035.50	15.65%	30.17%	3,150.00	1,045.00	190.48%	3.63%
BHARTIHEXA	1,685.00	15.39%	94.93%	1,717.00	854.15	97.27%	1.86%
MFSL	1,300.00	13.71%	29.09%	1,314.90	864.00	50.46%	1.13%
BANDHANBNK	165.00	13.22%	-12.04%	222.31	128.16	28.75%	25.78%
COCHINSHIP	1,585.00	13.03%	22.05%	2,979.45	1,168.00	35.70%	46.80%
HUDCO	221.24	12.04%	-0.46%	353.70	158.85	39.28%	37.45%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of sectoral mix; the top-15 had 6 Financial Inclusion Stocks (AU Bank, IDFC First Bank, BSE, Max Financial, Bandhan Bank, HUDCO), and 4 Defence stocks (Bharat Dynamics, Solar Industries, Mazagon Docks, Cochin Shipyards). The others were sectorally distributed. The worst performers in April 2025 were largely bottom-up plays, and included Voltas, NALCO, Glenmark Pharma, Coforge, and Muthoot Finance.

HOW MID-CAPS DELIVERED ON 1-YEAR RETURNS?

Mid cap stocks as a whole, delivered 6.40% in last one year. Out of 94 mid-cap stocks, only 4 stock gave more than 90% yoy, while 6 stocks gave over 50% returns. A total of 45 stocks gave negative returns yoy. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
PAYTM	861.40	10.38%	132.21%	1,062.95	310.00	177.87%	18.96%
BSE	6,339.50	16.04%	127.91%	6,808.00	2,115.00	199.74%	6.88%
DIXON	16,400.00	24.83%	97.22%	19,148.90	7,932.55	106.74%	14.36%
BHARTIHEXA	1,685.00	15.39%	94.93%	1,717.00	854.15	97.27%	1.86%
PERSISTENT	5,289.00	-3.49%	57.97%	6,788.90	3,232.05	63.64%	22.09%
JUBLFOOD	714.00	7.68%	54.45%	796.75	437.65	63.14%	10.39%
SOLARINDS	13,150.00	17.15%	46.88%	13,664.00	7,888.25	66.70%	3.76%
COFORGE	7,296.00	-9.92%	43.14%	10,026.80	4,287.25	70.18%	27.24%
MARICO	709.00	9.02%	37.15%	736.90	510.45	38.90%	3.79%
SUZLON	56.00	-0.46%	34.93%	86.04	37.90	47.76%	34.91%
UPL	670.35	5.29%	32.09%	692.20	446.49	50.14%	3.16%
PAGEIND	45,270.00	6.84%	31.14%	49,849.95	33,870.00	33.66%	9.19%
MAXHEALTH	1,097.60	0.11%	30.69%	1,227.95	743.10	47.71%	10.62%
GLENMARK	1,375.80	-10.37%	30.65%	1,830.95	985.20	39.65%	24.86%
MAZDOCK	3,035.50	15.65%	30.17%	3,150.00	1,045.00	190.48%	3.63%

Data Source: NSE

On a yoy basis, the list was spread out across sectors, since it was more of a bottom up story for mid-caps. Some of the themes include Financial Inclusion (BSE, Paytm); IT (Coforge, Persistent); Defence (Solar Industries, Mazagon Docks); Healthcare (Max Health, Suzlon); and FMCG (Jubilant Foods, Marico). The names at the bottom were stock specific names like Phoenix, Vodafone Idea, Tata Technologies, Astral, Adani Total Gas, and CONCOR.

HOW RESILIENT WERE MID-CAP STOCKS IN LAST ONE YEAR?

In terms of bounce from the lows, the mid-caps overall bounced 15.49%. Total of 4 stocks more than doubled, and 14 jumped over 50%. Top-20 average bounce was 79.23%.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BSE	6,339.50	16.04%	127.91%	6,808.00	2,115.00	199.74%	6.88%
MAZDOCK	3,035.50	15.65%	30.17%	3,150.00	1,045.00	190.48%	3.63%
PAYTM	861.40	10.38%	132.21%	1,062.95	310.00	177.87%	18.96%
DIXON	16,400.00	24.83%	97.22%	19,148.90	7,932.55	106.74%	14.36%
BHARTIHEXA	1,685.00	15.39%	94.93%	1,717.00	854.15	97.27%	1.86%
COFORGE	7,296.00	-9.92%	43.14%	10,026.80	4,287.25	70.18%	27.24%
BDL	1,503.00	19.37%	-22.65%	1,794.70	890.00	68.88%	16.25%
SOLARINDS	13,150.00	17.15%	46.88%	13,664.00	7,888.25	66.70%	3.76%
PERSISTENT	5,289.00	-3.49%	57.97%	6,788.90	3,232.05	63.64%	22.09%
JUBLFOOD	714.00	7.68%	54.45%	796.75	437.65	63.14%	10.39%
PATANJALI	1,901.50	5.40%	26.17%	2,011.00	1,169.95	62.53%	5.45%
KALYANKJIL	514.10	10.55%	24.74%	795.40	336.05	52.98%	35.37%
MFSL	1,300.00	13.71%	29.09%	1,314.90	864.00	50.46%	1.13%
UPL	670.35	5.29%	32.09%	692.20	446.49	50.14%	3.16%
SUZLON	56.00	-0.46%	34.93%	86.04	37.90	47.76%	34.91%

Data Source: NSE

On resilience score, the list was dominated by 4 new age tech (Paytm, Dixon, Coforge, and Persistent); 3 defence stocks (Mazagon Docks, Bharat Dynamics, and Solar Industries); 3 Consumer stocks (Jubilant Foods, Patanjali, and Kalyan Jewellers); and 2 financials (BSE, Max Financial). The list was largely synced with 1-year return rankings. The list at the bottom included ACC, Exide Industries, Vodafone Idea, Voltas, NMDC, and Astral.

HOW CLOSE WERE MID-CAPS TO THE YEARLY HIGHS?

In terms of proximity to the peak, the index was still 11.16% short of the peak. Total of 14 stocks are less than 10% to the peak while 39 stocks are over 30% from peak levels.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
MFSL	1,300.00	13.71%	29.09%	1,314.90	864.00	50.46%	1.13%
BHARTIHEXA	1,685.00	15.39%	94.93%	1,717.00	854.15	97.27%	1.86%
SRF	3,000.00	2.37%	14.80%	3,085.00	2,089.10	43.60%	2.76%
UPL	670.35	5.29%	32.09%	692.20	446.49	50.14%	3.16%
MAZDOCK	3,035.50	15.65%	30.17%	3,150.00	1,045.00	190.48%	3.63%
SOLARINDS	13,150.00	17.15%	46.88%	13,664.00	7,888.25	66.70%	3.76%
MARICO	709.00	9.02%	37.15%	736.90	510.45	38.90%	3.79%
PATANJALI	1,901.50	5.40%	26.17%	2,011.00	1,169.95	62.53%	5.45%
SBICARD	869.15	-0.86%	19.94%	930.65	647.95	34.14%	6.61%
MRF	1,34,200.00	19.37%	1.12%	1,43,849.90	1,02,124.05	31.41%	6.71%
BSE	6,339.50	16.04%	127.91%	6,808.00	2,115.00	199.74%	6.88%
APLAPOLLO	1,608.00	6.20%	4.02%	1,728.95	1,272.70	26.35%	7.00%
PAGEIND	45,270.00	6.84%	31.14%	49,849.95	33,870.00	33.66%	9.19%
FEDERALBNK	196.15	2.05%	20.96%	217.00	148.00	32.53%	9.61%
HDFCAMC	4,370.00	8.98%	12.32%	4,864.00	3,415.55	27.94%	10.16%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of proximity to the peak, the list is dominated by 5 financials (Max Financial, SBI Cards, BSE, Federal Bank, HDFC AMC); Defence (Mazagon Docks, Solar Industries); FMCG (Patanjali, Marico); and Chemicals (SRF and UPL). Companies farthest from the peak were stocks like Vodafone Idea, Adani Total Gas, Oil India, IREDA and RVNL. Investors are starting to alpha hunt, which explains the vast variance in performance of mid-caps.