Nifty rebounds in October 2025; as India story takes shape

4 Nov 2025 , 09:17 AM

INDIA STORY BACK IN FOCUS

It was a month when the US tariffs continued to hit exports and the US shutdown continued to haunt global markets. However, Indian markets shifted focus to the domestic story led by proxies of India capex and India consumption. The US Fed cut rates by 25 bps in late October but Jerome Powell cautioned that more rate cuts may not be feasible in 2025. This was less about turning hawkish and more about concerns over the lack of credible data flows. FPI flows into India continue to be tentative amidst the weakening rupee. Here is a quick look at how large caps performed in October 2025, across different parameters.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – AGAIN, DOMESTIC STORIES HELD UP

Nifty was up 4.51% in October 2025, with 39 gainers and 10 losers in terms of 1-month returns. We have ignored Tata Motors due to the demerger impact. While the positive side returns averaged 5.74%, the negative side returns averaged -1.40%, clearly showing a drift towards the gainers. Here are top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SHRIRAMFIN	751.40	21.55%	26.30%	769.80	493.35	52.31%	2.39%
HCLTECH	1,540.00	11.29%	-16.17%	2,012.20	1,302.75	18.21%	23.47%
TITAN	3,743.10	11.28%	13.25%	3,800.00	2,925.00	27.97%	1.50%
HINDALCO	849.00	11.27%	23.16%	864.00	546.45	55.37%	1.74%
NESTLEIND	1,271.90	10.30%	12.97%	1,311.60	1,055.00	20.56%	3.03%
LT	4,028.00	10.16%	18.27%	4,062.60	2,965.30	35.84%	0.85%
BHARTIARTL	2,061.30	9.38%	25.78%	2,110.40	1,511.00	36.42%	2.33%
SBILIFE	1,959.00	9.22%	20.41%	1,978.70	1,372.55	42.73%	1.00%
RELIANCE	1,487.00	8.97%	10.60%	1,551.00	1,114.85	33.38%	4.13%
AXISBANK	1,232.30	8.94%	5.33%	1,276.10	933.50	32.01%	3.43%
TATASTEEL	182.90	8.34%	22.74%	186.94	122.62	49.16%	2.16%
SBIN	937.50	7.40%	13.93%	946.70	680.00	37.87%	0.97%
ASIANPAINT	2,508.10	6.84%	-16.21%	3,006.00	2,124.75	18.04%	16.56%
ONGC	255.79	6.63%	-2.40%	274.35	205.00	24.78%	6.77%
SUNPHARMA	1,691.00	6.05%	-8.71%	1,910.00	1,548.00	9.24%	11.47%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 4 Financial Stocks, 3 FMCG Stocks, and 2 Metal Stocks. HCL Tech was the only IT company to feature in the top-15 list, with the others largely being domestic plays. Financials continue to represent the domestic India story, while metals are more of a play on the Involution Plans of the Chinese government and improving China growth story.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO OCTOBER 2025

With Nifty index 1-Year returns at 5.67% in October 2025, there were 31 gainers and 18 losers. While the positive side returns were 20.11%, the negative side were -13.44%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BAJFINANCE	1,045.00	4.39%	52.05%	1,102.50	645.10	61.99%	5.22%
BEL	426.20	5.48%	47.67%	436.00	240.25	77.40%	2.25%
EICHERMOT	7,014.00	0.02%	43.90%	7,122.50	4,536.05	54.63%	1.52%
MARUTI	16,155.00	0.98%	43.79%	16,660.00	10,725.00	50.63%	3.03%
INDIGO	5,645.50	0.55%	38.63%	6,232.50	3,830.00	47.40%	9.42%
M&M	3,490.60	1.76%	28.79%	3,723.80	2,425.00	43.94%	6.26%
SHRIRAMFIN	751.40	21.55%	26.30%	769.80	493.35	52.31%	2.39%
ETERNAL	318.00	-2.38%	26.07%	368.45	194.80	63.24%	13.69%
JSWSTEEL	1,208.10	5.54%	25.98%	1,223.90	880.00	37.28%	1.29%
BHARTIARTL	2,061.30	9.38%	25.78%	2,110.40	1,511.00	36.42%	2.33%
HINDALCO	849.00	11.27%	23.16%	864.00	546.45	55.37%	1.74%
TATASTEEL	182.90	8.34%	22.74%	186.94	122.62	49.16%	2.16%
KOTAKBANK	2,105.50	5.50%	21.19%	2,301.90	1,679.05	25.40%	8.53%
SBILIFE	1,959.00	9.22%	20.41%	1,978.70	1,372.55	42.73%	1.00%
BAJAJFINSV	2,090.00	4.08%	19.16%	2,195.00	1,551.65	34.70%	4.78%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 5 BFSI companies, 3 Auto stocks, 3 Metal Stocks, and 2 Consumer Service Stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, there were deep cuts in IT and FMCG stocks. Some of the big hits in the year include stocks like Trent, TCS, Infosys, NTPC, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, and HCL Tech. In fact, several PSUs like NTPC, Coal India, and Power Grid lagged in performance in the last 1 year.

NIFTY RESILIENCE PROMINENT IN DOMESTIC STORIES IN OCTOBER 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year stood at 18.30%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, 8 stocks bounced over 50% from lows. A total of 21 stocks bounced more than 30% and 32 stocks bounced more than 20%, from the lows of the year.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	426.20	5.48%	47.67%	436.00	240.25	77.40%	2.25%
ETERNAL	318.00	-2.38%	26.07%	368.45	194.80	63.24%	13.69%
BAJFINANCE	1,045.00	4.39%	52.05%	1,102.50	645.10	61.99%	5.22%
HINDALCO	849.00	11.27%	23.16%	864.00	546.45	55.37%	1.74%
EICHERMOT	7,014.00	0.02%	43.90%	7,122.50	4,536.05	54.63%	1.52%
JIOFIN	307.10	4.64%	-4.11%	347.35	198.65	54.59%	11.59%
SHRIRAMFIN	751.40	21.55%	26.30%	769.80	493.35	52.31%	2.39%
MARUTI	16,155.00	0.98%	43.79%	16,660.00	10,725.00	50.63%	3.03%
TATASTEEL	182.90	8.34%	22.74%	186.94	122.62	49.16%	2.16%
INDIGO	5,645.50	0.55%	38.63%	6,232.50	3,830.00	47.40%	9.42%
ADANIPORTS	1,450.50	3.42%	3.96%	1,494.00	995.65	45.68%	2.91%
M&M	3,490.60	1.76%	28.79%	3,723.80	2,425.00	43.94%	6.26%
SBILIFE	1,959.00	9.22%	20.41%	1,978.70	1,372.55	42.73%	1.00%
SBIN	937.50	7.40%	13.93%	946.70	680.00	37.87%	0.97%
JSWSTEEL	1,208.10	5.54%	25.98%	1,223.90	880.00	37.28%	1.29%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 had 5 BFSI stocks, 3 Auto stocks, 3 Metal Stocks, and 2 Consumer Stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, the strugglers had marquee stocks like (Trent, Wipro, TCS, ITC, Sun Pharma, Coal India, Cipla, Infosys, and ICICI Bank). Stocks like Eternal (Zomato), BEL, and Indigo Airways are at the top on multiple counts. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 56.67% while the top 20 stocks bounced 47.33% from lows on average.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures distance of the stock price from the yearly highs. Lower the gap, more favourable the swing. Nifty swing improved from 7.04% in in August to 4.12% in September, and further to 1.46% in October 2025. Out of 49 stocks in the Nifty, 20 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while 27 stocks are under 10% short of yearly highs.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
LT	4,028.00	10.16%	18.27%	4,062.60	2,965.30	35.84%	0.85%
SBIN	937.50	7.40%	13.93%	946.70	680.00	37.87%	0.97%
SBILIFE	1,959.00	9.22%	20.41%	1,978.70	1,372.55	42.73%	1.00%
JSWSTEEL	1,208.10	5.54%	25.98%	1,223.90	880.00	37.28%	1.29%
TITAN	3,743.10	11.28%	13.25%	3,800.00	2,925.00	27.97%	1.50%
EICHERMOT	7,014.00	0.02%	43.90%	7,122.50	4,536.05	54.63%	1.52%
HINDALCO	849.00	11.27%	23.16%	864.00	546.45	55.37%	1.74%
TATASTEEL	182.90	8.34%	22.74%	186.94	122.62	49.16%	2.16%
BEL	426.20	5.48%	47.67%	436.00	240.25	77.40%	2.25%
BHARTIARTL	2,061.30	9.38%	25.78%	2,110.40	1,511.00	36.42%	2.33%
TATACONSUM	1,163.00	3.16%	13.91%	1,191.20	882.90	31.72%	2.37%
SHRIRAMFIN	751.40	21.55%	26.30%	769.80	493.35	52.31%	2.39%
GRASIM	2,900.00	4.89%	8.20%	2,977.80	2,276.95	27.36%	2.61%
ADANIPORTS	1,450.50	3.42%	3.96%	1,494.00	995.65	45.68%	2.91%
NESTLEIND	1,271.90	10.30%	12.97%	1,311.60	1,055.00	20.56%	3.03%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 3 Financials, 3 Metal Stocks, and 3 FMCG Stocks.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by bottom-up stories like Trent, TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Adani Enterprises and NTPC. IT is quite heavy at the bottom. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 1.56% while the top 20 stocks averaged 2.37% for October 2025.

This swing story can be a soothing factor, and also a warning signal. It shows that the large caps are now fairly close to their highs and upside moves may be tougher from here on!