November 2025 trade deficit eases to $24.53 billion

18 Dec 2025 , 10:15 AM

INDIA NOVEMBER 2025 TRADE – DATA CHECK 

After the intimidating merchandise trade deficit of $(41.68) Billion in October, the goods trade deficit eased to $(24.53) Billion in November 2025. Despite the Trump-imposed tariffs, India managed to grow its export of goods and services meaningfully. India has persisted with Russian oil purchases in November, and that helped contain the oil-driven deficit. The cumulative goods trade deficit stands at $(223.14) billion as of end-November 2025. 

Key contributors to exports in November 2025 were Engineering Goods $11.01 Billion (+23.8%), Electronic Goods $4.81 Billion (+39.0%), Petroleum Products $3.93 Billion (+11.7%), Gems & Jewellery $2.64 Billion (+27.8%), Drugs & Pharma $2.61 Billion (+20.9%), and Organic & Inorganic Chemicals $2.34 Billion (+18.5%). Key import contributors were crude & petroleum products $14.12 Billion (-11.3%), Electronic Goods $8.75 Billion (+16.0%), Machinery $5.03 Billion (+14.9%), Gold $4.0 Billion (-59.2%), Transport Equipment $2.84 Billion (+7.2%), Non-ferrous Metals $2.39 Billion (+15.7%), and Fertilizers $2.34 Billion (+73.0%). The equation has improved visibly compared to October 2025. 

Top export destinations for November 2025 were United States $6.98 Billion, United Arab Emirates (UAE) $3.38 Billion, China $2.20 Billion, the UK $1.11 Billion, and the Netherlands $1.01 Billion. Top import originating nations were China $10.28 Billion, the US $5.26 Billion, Russia $4.85 Billion, United Arab Emirates (UAE) $4.26 Billion, Saudi Arabia $2.28 Billion, Singapore $2.09 Billion, and Hong Kong $1.87 Billion.  

HOW MERCHANDISE TRADE EVOLVED IN LAST 1 YEAR 

Here is the monthly data of merchandise exports, imports, and trade deficit. 

Monthly Data	Exports  ($ Billion)	Imports  ($ Billion)	Total Trade ($ Billion)	Trade Deficit ($ Billion)
Nov-24	32.11	69.95	102.06	-37.84
Dec-24	38.01	59.95	97.96	-21.94
Jan-25	36.43	59.42	95.85	-22.99
Feb-25	36.91	50.96	87.87	-14.05
Mar-25	41.97	63.51	105.48	-21.54
Apr-25	38.49	64.91	103.40	-26.42
May-25	38.73	60.61	99.34	-21.88
Jun-25	35.14	53.92	89.06	-18.78
Jul-25	37.24	64.59	101.83	-27.35
Aug-25	35.10	61.59	96.69	-26.49
Sep-25	36.38	68.53	104.91	-32.15
Oct-25	34.38	76.06	110.44	-41.68 #
Nov-25	38.13	62.66	100.79	-24.53

Data Source: DGFT (# – All time high trade deficit) 

How do trade figures compare with 12-month averages. Over last 12 months, the average merchandise exports stood at $36.74 Billion, and average merchandise imports stood at $62.83 Billion. For November 2025 exports are lower but imports are at par with the average. The average trade deficit in last 12 months stood at $(26.09) Billion; with the November 2025 trade deficit lower at $(24.53) Billion. In November 2025, total trade at $100.79 Billion was marginally above the previous 12-month average of $99.57 Billion. 

TRADE GAP – EXPORT BOOSTERS AND IMPORT TRIMMERS 

Here are star export performers in November 2025, on percentage increase in exports yoy. Iron Ore (+70.2%), Cashew (+57.2%), Oil Meals (+40.3%), Cereals (+40.2%), Mica/Coal/Ores (+39.7%), and Electronic Goods (+39.0%) were the key export growth drivers in November 2025.  Major import trimmers in November 2025 were Gold (-59.2%), Newsprint (-23.4%), Vegetable Oil (-19.8%), Petroleum Products (-11.3%), and Coal/Coke/Briquettes (-5.7%).  

TRADE DATA BREAK-UP FOR NOVEMBER 2025 

Here is a break up of the merchandise and services export and import data for November 2025, with comparable figures. 

Macro Variables (Trade Related)	Nov-25  ($ Billion)	Oct-25  ($ Billion)	Nov-24 ($ Billion)	Change  YOY (%)
Merchandise Exports	38.13	34.38	31.94	19.38%
Merchandise Imports	62.66	76.06	63.87	-1.89%
Total Merchandise Trade	100.79	110.44	95.81	5.20%
Merchandise Trade Deficit	-24.53	-41.68	-31.93	-23.18%
Services Exports	35.86	38.52	32.11	11.68%
Services Imports	17.96	18.64	17.25	4.12%
Total Services Trade	53.82	57.16	49.36	9.04%
Services Trade Surplus	17.90	19.88	14.86	20.46%
Combined Exports	73.99	72.90	64.05	15.52%
Combined  Imports	80.62	94.70	81.12	-0.62%
Overall Trade Volume	154.61	167.60	145.17	6.50%
Overall Trade Deficit	-6.63	-21.80	-17.07	-61.16%

Data Source: DGFT and RBI 

What is the big picture? For November 2025 the net deficit at $6.63 Billion is sharply lower than the year-ago period as well as the previous month figure. The services surplus has offset just 73.0% of the merchandise trade deficit in November 2025, sharply higher than last month. Tariffs are pinching, but the good news is that India has boosted trade with other geographies. The one concern would be that US trade, which used to generate a large merchandise trade surplus for India, is now almost flattening. That could have an impact on long term trade equations, unless India is able to find alternate markets. 

CUMULATIVE TRADE DATA FOR FY26 (APR-NOV) 

Having seen the monthly picture of November 2025, here is a cumulative 8-month view. 

Macro Variables  (Year-to-Date)	FY26  (Apr-Nov)	FY26  (Apr-Oct)	FY25  (Apr-Nov)	Change  YOY (%)
Merchandise Exports	292.07	254.25	284.60	2.62%
Merchandise Imports	515.21	451.08	487.93	5.59%
Total Merchandise Trade	807.28	705.33	772.53	4.50%
Merchandise Trade Deficit	-223.14	-196.83	-203.33	9.74%
Services Exports	270.06	237.55	248.56	8.65%
Services Imports	135.93	118.87	132.21	2.81%
Total Services Trade	405.99	356.42	380.77	6.62%
Services Trade Surplus	134.13	118.68	116.35	15.28%
Combined Exports	562.13	491.80	533.16	5.43%
Combined  Imports	651.14	569.95	620.14	5.00%
Overall Trade Volume	1,213.27	1,061.75	1,153.30	5.20%
Overall Trade Deficit	-89.01	-78.15	-86.98	2.33%

Data Source: DGFT and RBI (Trade data in Billion $) 

The overall trade deficit, combining merchandise deficit and services surplus, at $(89.01) Billion; is 2.3% higher compared to the corresponding 8 months of the previous fiscal. There are other trade headwinds that India has to contend with; like the steep US tariffs and the H1-B visa restrictions.  The former is impacting the merchandise deficit; while the latter can impact the services surplus in the coming months. For now, things look under control! 

The current account deficit data for FY25 came in quite encouraging at a meagre 0.6% of GDP for the full year, thanks to a strong trade surplus in the fourth quarter. For FY26, the CAD data is available for the first half of FY26, which has come in at $14.7 Billion, which translates into approximately 0.8% of GDP. That is a comfortable situation to be in. Normally, the problems on the CAD front will arise once the full year CAD crosses $50 billion. That looks unlikely at this point!