November WPI Inflation at -0.32%; hardens on base effect

17 Dec 2025 , 05:37 PM

NOVEMBER 2025 WPI INFLATION HARDENS TO -0.32% 

The previous month dip in WPI inflation to -1.21% was largely driven by the sharp GST cuts across essential commodities. With that impact playing out, the November WPI inflation came in at -0.32% (still negative, but hardening). This was due to the base WPI number falling from 2.75% to 2.16% in the year ago period. The good news is that the manufacturing inflation (with 64.2% weight) is now structurally down to 1.33%. 

While the November hardening of WPI inflation is about the base effect, that base effect is likely to remain stagnant till April 2026. So, any WPI moves from here will be purely on price action only. In terms of WPI changes to past data, the September 2025 WPI inflation has been revised upwards by 6 basis points from 0.13% to 0.19%. The table below captures the parallel WPI and CPI monthly inflation numbers for last 1 year. 

Month	WPI Inflation (%)	CPI Inflation (%)
Nov-24	2.16%	5.48%
Dec-24	2.57%	5.22%
Jan-25	2.51%	4.26%
Feb-25	2.45%	3.61%
Mar-25	2.25%	3.34%
Apr-25	0.85%	3.16%
May-25	0.13%	2.82%
Jun-25	-0.19%	2.10%
Jul-25	-0.58%	1.61%
Aug-25	+0.52%	+2.07%
Sep-25	+0.19%	+1.54%
Oct-25	-1.21%	+0.25%
Nov-25	-0.32%	+0.71%

Data Source: Office of the Economic Advisor 

Let us look at how WPI and CPI inflation measure against the last 12 months rolling averages? In the case of WPI inflation, the average of the last 12 rolling months is 0.97%, so the current month WPI inflation is substantially lower at -0.32%. For CPI inflation, the average of the last 12 rolling months was 2.96%, and the 0.71% reading is also well and truly below that. There is a minor difference in the predominant basket in WPI and CPI inflation. While WPI Inflation is dominated by Manufacturing basket with 64.23% weight; the CPI inflation is dominated by the Food basket with 47.25% weight. GST impact is waning. 

WPI INFLATION SHIFTS: YOY AND MOM 

Here is how the WPI inflation basket across primary products, fuel & power, and manufacturing; shifted YOY in last 3 months.  

Commodity Set	Weight	Nov-25 WPI	Oct-25 WPI	Sep-25 WPI
Primary Articles	0.2262	-2.93%	-6.18%	-3.12%
Fuel & Power	0.1315	-2.27%	-2.55%	-2.58%
Manufactured Products	0.6423	1.33%	1.54%	2.33%
WPI Inflation	1.0000	-0.32%	-1.21%	0.19%
Food Basket	0.2438	-2.60%	-5.04%	-1.94%

Data Source: Office of the Economic Advisor 

While the fuel basket remained flat MOM, food inflation has hardened mainly due to the base effect. Also, the heavyweight manufacturing inflation is structurally down after GST cuts. Let us now turn to the high frequency MOM data for each of the WPI components.  

Commodity Set	Weight	Nov-25 WPI	Oct-25 WPI	Sep-25 WPI
Primary Articles	0.2262	2.07%	-0.63%	-0.84%
Fuel & Power	0.1315	1.03%	1.12%	-0.07%
Manufactured Products	0.6423	-0.07%	-0.07%	0.14%
WPI Inflation	1.0000	0.71%	-0.13%	-0.13%
Food Basket	0.2438	1.56%	-0.05%	-0.72%

Data Source: Office of the Economic Advisor 

The short-term high frequency trend clearly shows upward pressure coming from food and primary basket. While fuel is largely flat, the manufacturing basket has been on a secular downtrend. It is still debatable why the food basket has spiked amid robust Rabi crop expectations. The only answer, for now, could be the impact of base effect. 

WPI BASKET – BIG SWING FACTORS IN NOVEMBER 2025 

Swing factor are drivers that trigger the shift in WPI; both positive and negative. 

Commodity	WPI Inflation	Commodity	WPI Inflation
Minerals	10.42%	Onions	-64.70%
Oil Seeds	9.54%	Potatoes	-36.14%
Milk	3.35%	Vegetables	-20.23%
Tobacco Products	2.49%	Pulses	-15.21%
Wearing Apparel	2.21%	Crude Petroleum	-13.92%
Eggs, Meat, Fish	2.08%	Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG)	-12.78%
Textiles	1.91%	Crude Oil & Natural Gas	-8.66%
Wood Products	1.68%	Semi-finished Steel	-2.89%
Paper Products	1.44%	Petrol	-1.75%
Pharmaceuticals	1.39%	Cereals	-1.66%

Data Source: Office of the Economic Advisor 

Let us look at what caused the upward pressure on WPI inflation in November 2025. Out of the top 10 items pushing WPI inflation up; 7 are from manufacturing basket and 3 from the primary basket. What about the downward pressure on WPI? There are 5 products from the food basket, 4 from energy basket, and 1 from the manufacturing basket. The WPI boosters and pressure points are giving out a rather eloquent story of WPI determinants. 

To sum up, there are 3 key takeaways. Firstly, the deflationary impact of GST cuts is largely factored in and any incremental benefits on the downside are unlikely. Secondly, fuel may continue to remain subdued. Apart from the OPEC supplies, even US shale is likely to see a supply glut next year. Lastly, manufacturing is where the good news is. The structural fall in manufacturing inflation hints that core CPI inflation may also eventually taper!