Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to December 13, 2025

17 Dec 2025 , 04:52 PM

FED RATE CUT SHIFTS FOCUS ON INDIAN RUPEE 

The RBI rate cut in the previous week was a pointer towards weakening of the rupee. However, the Fed cutting rates by 25 bps was expected to help stabilize the rupee. Nothing of that sort happened as the rupee cracked sharply to ₹90.60/$ by weekend. 

India inflation for November 2025 came in higher at 0.71%, compared to 0.25% in October. However, the 6-month inflation is still under 2% and the Indian economy looks on target to report sub-2% inflation for FY26, barring exceptional macro conditions. 

• US BOND YIELDS HARDEN AFTER FED OUTLOOK 

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 6 trading sessions.  

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
12-Dec-25	4.196	4.147	4.200	4.147
11-Dec-25	4.141	4.137	4.161	4.100
10-Dec-25	4.164	4.186	4.209	4.137
09-Dec-25	4.186	4.166	4.192	4.141
08-Dec-25	4.172	4.143	4.192	4.129
05-Dec-25	4.139	4.100	4.145	4.088

Data Source: Bloomberg 

The US bond yields hardened during the week from 4.139% to 4.196%, closing near the high point of the week. Despite the 25-bps rate cut by the Fed, the dot-plot is hinting at just 2 more rate cuts of 25 bps each by end of 2027. That is a hawkish signal. For the week, the US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.209% and low of 4.100%. 

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); EDGES LOWER AFTER RATE CUT 

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
12-Dec-25	98.024	98.000	98.165	97.940
11-Dec-25	97.991	98.250	98.395	97.765
10-Dec-25	98.426	98.855	98.880	98.220
09-Dec-25	98.848	98.770	98.965	98.620
08-Dec-25	98.745	98.650	98.870	98.455
05-Dec-25	98.648	98.635	98.770	98.470

Data Source: Bloomberg 

The breach above 100 levels about 3 weeks ago looks more like a flash in the pan. The Fed rate cut may not have weakened the dollar exchange rate too much, but the dollar index showed pressure. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.97 and a low of 97.77 this week, with the DXY facing resistance, once again at 100 levels. 

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS GIVING HAWKISH SIGNALS 

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
12-Dec-25	6.596	6.611	6.611	6.547
11-Dec-25	6.611	6.663	6.666	6.607
10-Dec-25	6.663	6.619	6.668	6.600
09-Dec-25	6.618	6.567	6.629	6.560
08-Dec-25	6.567	6.515	6.577	6.509
05-Dec-25	6.500	6.530	6.530	6.489

Data Source: RBI 

For the week, the India bond yields edged higher from 6.500% to 6.596%. Despite the RBI rate cut and the liquidity infusion, bond yields are higher. The likely end of rate cut cycle and fears of a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit have kept bond yields hawkish. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.668% and a low of 6.509%. 

• RUPEE WEAKENS SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK 

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
12-Dec-25	90.584	90.188	90.652	90.174
11-Dec-25	90.251	89.875	90.488	89.846
10-Dec-25	89.793	89.908	90.084	89.763
09-Dec-25	89.917	90.130	90.207	89.825
08-Dec-25	90.130	89.962	90.267	89.962
05-Dec-25	89.945	89.900	90.076	89.700

Data Source: RBI 

The USDINR weakened sharply from ₹89.945/$ to ₹90.584/$; losing more than ₹1.25/$ in 2 weeks. The rupee crossed 90/$ on all trading days this week, closing 3 days above 90/$. There is pressure of NDF selling and hedging demand, amid limited RBI support. USDINR touched a weekly high of ₹89.763/$ and a low of ₹90.652/$. 

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS ON HIGHER EXPECTED US SHALE SUPPLY 

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions. 

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
12-Dec-25	61.12	61.60	61.86	60.81
11-Dec-25	61.28	62.42	62.63	60.77
10-Dec-25	62.21	62.11	62.73	61.35
09-Dec-25	61.94	62.54	62.78	61.83
08-Dec-25	62.49	63.75	63.96	62.34
05-Dec-25	63.75	63.26	64.09	63.06

Data Source: Bloomberg 

Brent prices fell from $63.75/bbl to $61.12/bbl for the week. While IEA projected 220,000 bpd fall in shale; Jefferies has pegged 48,000 bpd growth in shale in 2026. Add that story to the OPEC supply glut and Brent looks a lot weaker. Brent touched a high of $63.96/bbl and a low of $60.81/bbl this week. 

• SPOT GOLD SURGES AFTER FED RATE CUT 

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz). 

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
12-Dec-25	4,302.43	4,283.26	4,353.72	4,257.60
11-Dec-25	4,283.28	4,228.53	4,286.24	4,203.98
10-Dec-25	4,228.55	4,209.56	4,239.10	4,181.68
09-Dec-25	4,209.54	4,189.00	4,221.67	4,170.00
08-Dec-25	4,189.05	4,197.19	4,219.31	4,176.34
05-Dec-25	4,197.13	4,208.69	4,259.55	4,191.95

Data Source: Bloomberg 

The week saw a sharp rally in Spot Gold from $4,197.13/oz to $4,302.43/oz. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,33,900 per 10 grams on weak rupee. The rate cut has sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, which explains this rally. Gold touched a weekly high of $4,353.72/oz and low of $4,170.00/oz.  

• SPOT SILVER LOGS INTO UNCHARTED TERRITORY 

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz). 

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
12-Dec-25	62.0194	63.5782	64.6699	60.8037
11-Dec-25	63.5780	61.7979	64.3350	61.4307
10-Dec-25	61.7981	60.6824	61.9585	60.0950
09-Dec-25	60.6825	58.1325	60.8428	57.5934
08-Dec-25	58.1325	58.3353	58.6472	57.5599
05-Dec-25	58.2951	57.1429	59.3474	56.8772

Data Source: Bloomberg 

For the third week in a row, spot silver scaled all-time highs, and closed significantly higher at $62.0194/oz. For the week, silver touched a peak of $64.6699/oz. In India, silver briefly rallied above the 200K mark, before closing at ₹1,97,500 per KG. Silver is seeing safe-haven buying and industrial demand from electronics, alternate energy, and defence.