- Revenue: Rs19,465cr (up 1% yoy, down 13% qoq); MSIL will report flat revenue yoy (down 13% qoq); the lowest in multiple quarters, due to weak volume in Q3FY19 (down 1% yoy, 12% qoq). The volume mix was favourable during the quarter; with lower proportion of Mini segment and higher proportion of compact segment, Ciaz and vans. However, realization growth will be restricted to 2% yoy (down 2% qoq) due to high year-end discounting.
- EBITDA: Rs2,582cr (down 15% yoy, 25% qoq).
- EBITDA margin: 13.3% (contraction of 249bps yoy, 203bps qoq); Weak volumes and higher commodity prices will reduce operating leverage, leading to 249bps yoy margin contraction (203bps qoq) in Q3FY19.
- PAT: Rs1,907cr (up 6% yoy, down 15% qoq).
Q2FY19 performance highlights:
- Revenue: Rs22,433cr (up 3% yoy, flat qoq). Revenue growth for the quarter (3% yoy, flat qoq) was led by volume decline of 1.5% yoy (1% qoq) and realization growth of 5% yoy (1% qoq). This was the first quarterly volume decline for MSIL in more than at least 18 quarters. After exhibiting double digit growth over past 4 years (FY15-18), volume growth has been coming off for MSIL due to several macro-economic factors. This is a sector-wide phenomenon and companies are reacting to it by offering aggressive discounts during the ongoing festive season.
- EBITDA: Rs3,431cr (down 7% yoy, up 2% qoq).
- EBITDA margin: 15.3% (contraction of 160bps yoy, expansion of 37bps qoq). EBITDA performance was affected by lower operating leverage, weak volumes, high discounting and adverse commodity movements.
- PAT: Rs2,240cr (down 10% yoy, up 13% qoq).
- Street will watch out for management commentary on volume growth, extent of discounting, channel inventory and demand. New launches will be keenly tracked.