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United Spirits reported muted set of results with net revenue growth of 4.8% yoy, 185bps yoy contraction in gross margin and PAT decline of 19.4% yoy
United Spirits reported muted set of results with net revenue growth of 4.8% yoy, 185bps yoy contraction in gross margin and PAT decline of 19.4% yoy
Prestige and above segment grew at 12% (imputed net sales +15% yoy) accounting for ~28% of overall volumes which declined 3.7% yoy
ENA prices rose Rs16/case yoy (+Rs9/case qoq) leading to adverse impact of Rs500mn in Q3-consequently gross margin declined 185bps yoy which in turn led to ~19% yoy drop in EBIDTA
Premiumization trends notwithstanding, input cost pressures are unlikely to correct significantly in the near term which would continue to remain an overhang on margins; revise our FY14/15 estimates and retain Market Performer with 9-12 mth target of Rs2,350
| (Rs m) | Q3 FY14 | Q3 FY13 | % yoy | 9m FY14 | 9m FY13 | % yoy |
| Gross sales | 55,028 | 50,502 | 9.0 | 155,437 | 142,314 | 9.2 |
| Excise duty | (32,244) | (28,762) | 12.1 | (90,343) | (77,795) | 16.1 |
| Excise rate (%) | 58.6 | 57.0 | 164 bps | 58.1 | 54.7 | 346 bps |
| Net sales | 22,784 | 21,740 | 4.8 | 65,094 | 64,520 | 0.9 |
| Other op income | 302 | 287 | 5.3 | 639 | 603 | 5.9 |
| Net sales | 23,086 | 22,027 | 4.8 | 65,733 | 65,123 | 0.9 |
| Material costs | (11,871) | (10,503) | 13.0 | (33,238) | (33,874) | (1.9) |
| Purchase of stock in trade | (2,125) | (2,442) | (13.0) | (5,958) | (5,338) | 11.6 |
| Personnel costs | (1,555) | (1,301) | 19.6 | (4,184) | (3,549) | 17.9 |
| Other expenditure of which | (5,315) | (5,035) | 5.6 | (14,961) | (13,419) | 11.5 |
| - Advt & sales | (2,338) | (2,225) | 5.1 | (6,563) | (5,660) | 16.0 |
| -Others | (2,977) | (2,810) | 6.0 | (8,398) | (7,759) | 8.2 |
| Operating profit | 2,221 | 2,746 | (19.1) | 7,392 | 8,944 | (17.4) |
| OPM (%) | 9.6 | 12.5 | (285) bps | 11.2 | 13.7 | (411) bps |
| Depreciation | (183) | (173) | 5.4 | (545) | (524) | 4.2 |
| Interest | (1,505) | (1,636) | (8.0) | (4,464) | (4,992) | (10.6) |
| Other income | 619 | 185 | 235.2 | 1,514 | 422 | 259.1 |
| PBT | 1,153 | 1,122 | 2.7 | 3,897 | 3,851 | 1.2 |
| Tax | (313) | (453) | (30.9) | (1,375) | (1,344) | 2.3 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 32.5 | 36.0 | (345) bps | 33.1 | 33.7 | (114) bps |
| Adjusted PAT | 840 | 670 | 25.4 | 2,523 | 2,507 | 0.6 |
| Adj. PAT margin (%) | 3.6 | 3.0 | 60 bps | 3.8 | 3.8 | (21) bps |
| FX gain/(loss) | (191) | 136 | - | 250 | 141 | 77.1 |
| Reported PAT | 649 | 806 | (19.4) | 2,773 | 2,648 | 4.7 |
| Y/e 31 March (Rs m) | FY13 | FY14E | FY15E | FY16E |
| Revenues | 106,950 | 109,410 | 118,162 | 131,219 |
| yoy growth (%) | 15.7 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 11.1 |
| Operating profit | 13,169 | 12,308 | 13,810 | 16,745 |
| OPM (%) | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 12.8 |
| Pre-exceptional PAT | 1,210 | 3,193 | 4,581 | 6,638 |
| Reported PAT | (1,012) | 8,100 | 4,581 | 6,638 |
| yoy growth (%) | - | - | (43.5) | 44.9 |
| EPS (Rs) | (8.0) | 55.7 | 31.5 | 45.7 |
| P/E (x) | - | 42.4 | 75.0 | 51.8 |
| P/BV (x) | 6.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 28.7 | 31.3 | 28.0 | 22.9 |
| Debt/Equity (x) | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| ROE (%) | 2.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 6.9 |
| ROCE (%) | 9.7 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 10.9 |
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