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RAINMUMBAI – is India’s first exchanged-traded weather derivative contract launched by National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on 21st May 2026. The derivative measures the deviation of actual daily rainfall from the Long Period Average (LPA), which is benchmarked using 30 years of data (1991–2020). The derivative is developed by NCDEX in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay. The derivative contract tracks rainfall data from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
It is first-of-its-kind weather futures that is based on rainfall instead of a physical commodity. Hence, unlike commodity derivatives – there is no physical delivery, and contracts are settled directly and entirely in cash. Using Rainmumbai – trades are given the opportunity to hedge against unpredictable rainfall in the Mumbai region.
RAINMUMBAI is a futures-contract based on rainfall listed and traded on National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). Unlike traditional commodity contracts like gold, crude, and agricultural products – Rainmumbai isn’t linked to any physical commodity. The derivative derives its value from cumulative rainfall recorded during a specific period in a specific region (Mumbai)
The contract is categorised under weather derivatives, which gives traders a change to manage and hedge weather-related risks without owning or delivering any physical asset.
Whether rainfall is above or below expectations, the contract allows participants to manage financial exposure through exchange-traded positions.
Rainfall in India significantly impacts agricultural output, thereby influencing food prices, demand, activity around construction, transportation, tourism, as well as insurance claims. Traditional insurance covers losses after damage occurs. Weather futures help market participants manage rainfall-related risks before financial losses materialize. RAINMUMBAI NCDEX, thus, creates a transparent exchange-traded mechanism that enables participants to hedge weather uncertainty.
Who benefits?
The NCDEX RAINMUMBAI contract is based on the Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR) Index, which tracks whether Mumbai receives more or less rainfall than normal during the monsoon season (June to September).
The “normal” rainfall benchmark is measured using the Long Period Average (LPA), which is calculated from 30 years of historical rainfall data (1991–2020).
Every day, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) records rainfall data from its weather stations at Santacruz and Colaba in Mumbai. This rainfall is measured over a standard 24-hour period, from 8:30 AM to 8:30 AM, following IMD guidelines.
At the end of the contract period, the actual rainfall is compared with the normal rainfall (LPA):
If Mumbai receives more rainfall than normal, the CDR Index is positive.
If Mumbai receives less rainfall than normal, the CDR Index is negative.
Since the contract is cash-settled, traders receive profits or losses based on the final CDR Index value. The contract, thus, is a simple way to manage the financial risks associated with unpredictable rainfall.
Trading RAINMUMBAI NCDEX is similar to trading commodity futures.
Open a commodity trading account with a SEBI-registered broker offering access to NCDEX products.
Complete KYC and activate the commodity trading segment.
Search for the available RAINMUMBAI NCDEX contract.
Analyze rainfall forecasts and historical rainfall trends.
Place Buy or Sell orders depending on market outlook and data.
Monitor your positions until expiry or exit earlier if required.
Similar to how the value of specific commodity futures are linked to specific commodities (Gold, Crude, Wheat, etc.) Weather futures are exchange-traded financial contracts whose value depends on measurable weather parameters.
Common weather derivatives include:
A rainfall derivative like RAINMUMBAI specifically tracks rainfall measurements rather than commodity prices
Underlying Commodity – Rainfall – Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR)
Data received from – IMD surface rainfall and Automatic Weather Stations at Santacruz and Colaba, Mumbai
Tick Size – 1mm
Lot multiplier: ₹50 per mm
Maximum order size: 50 lots
Trading Days – Monday to Friday
Trading Time – 10:00 AM to 11:30/11:55 PM
Settlement: Cash-settled
RAINMUMBAI contracts are suitable for:
Hedge Traders
– Businesses exposed to rainfall risk such as farmers, realty developers, logistics business owners
Professional Traders
Traders seeking opportunities from changing weather forecasts.
Institutions
Portfolio managers looking for non-correlated investment opportunities.
Several variables influence RAINMUMBAI NCDEX prices.
Successful weather-exchange traders closely monitor:
| Feature | RAINMUMBAI | Temperature Futures | Global Weather Futures |
| Underlying | Rainfall | Temperature | Weather Indices |
| Settlement | Cash | Cash | Cash |
| Physical Delivery | No | No | No |
| Primary Use | Rainfall Risk | Energy Demand | Weather Hedging |
| Exchange | NCDEX | Global Exchanges | International Exchanges |
Suppose you are a commodity trader who believes the monsoon will be stronger than what the market has predicted. Based on weather forecasts, IMD updates, and historical rainfall trends, you expect Mumbai to receive above-normal rainfall during the contract period. You decide to take a position in RAINMUMBAI NCDEX contracts before the monsoon begins.
Assume you buy 10 contracts, with each contract carrying a lot multiplier of ₹50 per mm.
At expiry, the Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR) index is +50 mm, indicating rainfall exceeded the Long Period Average (LPA).
So the settlement will be
Illustrative Payout:
50 × 10 × ₹50 = ₹25,000
If your market view matches the contract outcome and the settlement rules, you receive a cash payout based on the final CDR value
However, assuming that the forecasts turn wrong, meaning rainfall is much lower than expected, and the CDR index settles at -10 mm.
If your position does not match with the final settlement value, you may incur a loss based on the same contract multiplier.
For example:
CDR Index at expiry: -10 mm
Number of contracts: 10
Lot multiplier: ₹50 per mm
Illustrative Loss:
10 × 10 × ₹50 = ₹5,000
Unlike traditional commodity futures, traders in RAINMUMBAI NCDEX do not speculate the price of a physical commodity. Instead, it trades based on the expectations of rainfall patterns, weather forecasts, and climate data. Since these contracts are cash settled using official IMD rainfall data, there is no physical delivery involved.
RAINMUMBAI NCDEX is a rainfall-based weather futures contract listed on NCDEX that allows participants to manage rainfall-related financial risks.
A rainfall derivative is a financial contract whose value depends on recorded rainfall instead of a physical commodity.
They are settled entirely in cash using official cumulative rainfall data published by the designated authority.
Weather futures are exchange-traded derivatives linked to measurable weather variables such as rainfall or temperature.
Retail investors, traders, institutions, and businesses with commodity trading access can trade Rainmumbai commodity contracts.
Monsoon forecasts, rainfall trends, climate events, IMD updates, seasonal expectations, and cumulative deviation rainfall influence prices.
Official rainfall data is published by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and referenced by NCDEX for settlement purposes.
Yes. Retail traders can trade provided they understand contract specifications, weather risks, and margin requirements.
Trading in RAINMUMBAI is active from 29th May 2026 Monday to Friday 10:00 AM to 11:55 PM
Unlike traditional commodity futures, RAINMUMBAI NCDEX is based on rainfall measurements rather than a physical commodity and is settled only in cash.
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